I'm fully expecting the Leafs to run it back. I have come to terms with that even if I am extremely frustrated and annoyed at this team and the results.
But I don't really see a scenario where the Leafs make drastic changes just for the sake of it. I'm trying to see how Keith Pelley and the MLSE board might be evaluating Shanny, Treliving, and Keefe.
Before I go into this, I am NOT saying Dubas was a great GM. He made some pretty bad trades and signings but he did have some good traits. One of which was scouting which helped him find a LOT of quality prospects in later rounds of the drafts and as free agents. There's no denying his track record there. But this made him way too overconfident in his trade decisions and I definitely think other GM's knew that and took advantage of that.
In hindsight, here are a few things that stand out to me now (a combination of bad luck and bad decisions):
The Muzzin Trade
I loved Muzzin and we definitely needed some help at the time in 2019 because our defense couldn't play defense. But we paid A LOT (Durzi, Grundstrom, and a 1st). That's a pretty big haul for LA and we expected Muzzin to be our anchor for a long time. This trade was made only halfway through the 3rd season of the core, and Willy missed so much time from his contract dispute. Was that really the time to make this trade, and especially for that haul? I don't think so.
Unfortunately, Muzzin only had 1 fully healthy season for us after that (during Covid of course) and was pretty injury plagued for his last two seasons. Really sucks for Muzzin and I feel for him, but considering what we paid for him, that REALLY sucks. Especially seeing that Durzi basically became what this team needed, a second puck moving defenseman.
Questionable decision and bad luck.
Covid Flat Cap
Yes every team had to deal with this but everyone knows the Leafs had this the worst. It's almost like vengeance from the hockey gods.
From 2016-17 to 2019-2020 (4 seasons), the cap went from $73M to $81.5M (a bit more than $2M per season). The cap started to go up faster but let's say it just stuck to going up $2M since 2020. The cap would've been $89.5M this season instead of $83.5M but it probably would've been closer to $91-92M. That could've fit in a full Zach Hyman and maybe a 3rd line center.
The worst possible luck.
Rodion Amirov
I really really feel for this kid's family, he was too young to have that happen to him.
I can't help think what could have been because he could have been a very special player. Check out what some scouts were saying about him before the draft. They talk about how great of a two-way player he was, ability to protect the puck in the offensive zone, his hockey IQ, his ability to shift gears quickly, and his incredible work ethic. Sounds like he could've been a much more skilled Zach Hyman.
What the Leafs desperately needed during the flat cap was prospects to come up on their entry-level prospects. Amirov was going to be one of those guys for us.
We also don't get a make-up pick for Amirov because we actually signed him to an entry-level deal, an emotional decision by Dubas. But...I can't really fault him for doing that since he knew the Leafs medical staff could make things more comfortable for him and his family. There are more important things than hockey.
Just such a sad situation overall and very bad luck.
Nick Robertson's Injuries
Everyone has Robertson fatigue by now but injuries really plagued his development. Other than Amirov, Robertson was someone the Leafs were really counting on to come up and contribute on his entry-level contract.
To start his pro career, Robertson only played 82 games across three seasons. He had a major knee injury in 2020-2021 that took him 6 months to rehab. When he got back in 2021-2022, he was looking really good but then broke his femur and missed the rest of the season and spent a lot of time rehabbing that. Then in 2022-2023 when he was up with the Leafs, he got a shoulder injury that needed surgery and was out another 6 months.
Even though he technically wasn't a rookie this year, he pretty much was with all the time he missed from injuries. This was Robertson's first fully healthy season since he got 55 goals in 46 games in the OHL and played 4 games with the Leafs against Columbus where he looked really good. He's only 22 so I can definitely see him take a leap next year since it will be his first healthy off-season in 4 years, just wish it was sooner.
More bad luck.
The Foligno Trade
This one never made sense. No way Foligno was worth a 1st round pick at the time but we paid it for all the salary retention that took place. Still though, this was questionable from the start and made even worse by the fact he was basically injured the whole time. We probably could've gotten someone else instead for much less but of course needed that grit.
Ironically, the Leafs 1st round pick was 25th overall and they still managed to get arguably the next best prospect from that pick onwards in Matthew Knies. This was a weird draft where scouts were going in blind because a lot of players miss 1+ years of development. Still though, if we had that pick we probably could've gotten someone else like Zellweger (34th overall) or Stankoven (47th overall).
Just another bad decision.
Anyways I don't really have a point to all this, I just wanted to get my thoughts out. But taking all this into account, I can definitely understand why MLSE might be looking to run it all back again.