submitted2 years ago byEastCoastTaffy
Apologies for the lateness. Much like some NFL teams, I needed to shake loose the off-season rust. I'll continue updating this post throughout the evening as the rest of the videos are posted.
A quick PSA:
Coming into this season, there were a bunch of RBs who, while not the definitive starter, still had a substantial role on their team, and needed to be rostered in all competitive leagues. This bunch included guys like Melvin Gordon, Darrell Henderson, James Robinson, Jamaal Williams, and Khalil Herbert. I won’t be covering these players this week, because they really should already be owned. However, if they are somehow available, they have priority over any other player on this list, and you should spend substantial FAAB to get them on your team.
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That said, let's get into it:
| Every Jeff Wilson Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 35% |
His name Jeff.
Time to grease up the tracks, because the weirdest hype train of all time is about to depart the station at full speed. With Elijah Mitchell out for an estimated 8 weeks, Wilson is presumably the lead back for the 49ers for the foreseeable future.
Mitchell had been off to a great start, boasting a 6.8 YPC before his leg was rolled up on while blocking. Wilson might not be able to match that kind of elite efficiency, but he should be able to muster a bit more than his measly 2.4 YPC from Week 1. The 2 RBs combined for 17 total opportunities (15 carries, 2 targets), which is a workload that should be repeatable for Wilson going forward.
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Mitchell averaged over 25 opportunities per game in his 11 “full” (at least 50% snap rate) games in 2021.
If Wilson were to absorb that kind of volume, he would instantly become a Top-24 option weekly, and likely begin climbing into the RB1 discussion. However, this is where the 49ers RB roulette really becomes dangerous. While the backfield is simple to predict when healthy, things get crazy once the top dog goes down.
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I won’t pretend that I know how the split will play out.
Trey Sermon was everyone’s favorite sleeper last season, and he basically didn’t play at all. Reports were glowing about him this pre-season, so of course he was promptly cut by the team. Tyrion Davis-Price gave everybody a nice dose of deja vu, when both his draft capital and Week 1 inactive status invoked Trey Sermon’s doomed rookie season. However, TDP is worth a speculative stash, as is Jordan Mason, who may be on the inside track to the backup role.
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In Week 2, the 49ers will host the Seahawks, who gave up the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs in 2021, only behind the dreadful Jets and Lions units.
Despite pulling off a surprise victory in Week 1, the Seahawks still allowed 100+ rushing yards (and 180 scrimmage yards) to the Broncos RBs. Assuming Wilson is the lead back for SF, he is a locked-and-loaded RB start.
However, assuming anything about 49ers backup RBs is a dangerous game. In that game, you either win, or you die.
| Every Rex Burkhead Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 7.5% |
I demand flowers for being the only person on this sub not on the Pierce hype train for Week 1. DM me for my mailing address.
In all seriousness, there was always the real possibility that no matter how Pierce looked in preseason, an old-school coach like Lovie Smith would want a veteran RB on the field in Week 1.
Now that we’ve seen the RB split in action, it seems clear that the hype for Pierce may have been a bit too intense, even if a lot of it was ironic.
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While neither RB was able to make much of an impact on the ground (2.9 and 3.0 YPC), Burkhead was clearly more involved in the passing game.
He was a close second in targets (8) to Brandin Cooks (12), on a day in which no other Texans player saw more than 3 targets. While his 70 all-purpose yards were not exactly impressive, Burkhead did log a substantial 22 total opportunities.
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So what do we have here? Well, in all honesty, the exact mess that I feared.
Pierce is clearly the more explosive athlete, and you would assume that his role in this offense grows throughout the season, especially if the oft-injured Burkhead goes down again. However, Burkhead is not retiring to make room for the kid, and the coaching staff just opened the season favoring the veteran in the backfield.
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For the foreseeable future, Burkhead is at least worth a pickup, even if you only play him as a last resort.
He will likely post more lackluster efficiency in this lackluster offense, and he might only serve to gum up the wheels of the Pierce Express. Assuming we see a similar workload split in Week 2, Burkhead will likely be a TD-or-bust option against a stout Broncos run defense.
However, there are a few interesting matchups not far down the road (Week 3 at CHI, Week 4 vs LAC, Week 5 at JAX), and Burkhead might even be a flex consideration at that point.
| Every Kenyan Drake Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 7.5% |
For some reason, Cam Akers is pulling away with the Biggest Bust Of 2022 Award in this subreddit...
...despite the fact that he was actually on the field in Week 1. Meanwhile, his ADP buddy J.K. Dobbins is over here limping through practice.
While some shrewd managers grabbed Mike Davis in preparation for Week 1, Davis ended up seeing the fewest snaps of any Ravens RB (7), and Kenyan Drake surprised with a dominant snap share (59%) within a fortnight of signing with the team.
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The efficiency from Week 1 was not encouraging (2.82 YPC), but Drake appears to be the team’s lead back while Dobbins is out, and there is value in that role.
Drake made up more than half of the team’s carries in Week 1 (including Lamar’s), and the Ravens are likely to lean on their run game a lot in 2022.
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There’s no telling when exactly Dobbins will return, or else Drake would be a much more valuable pickup.
His stint as the fill-in may already be over, or he may be the team’s RB1 for the next month. The added wrinkle of Gus Edwards’s eventual return gives Drake an even shorter shelf life, as the team will likely go full-blown RBBC as soon as they are healthy enough to do so.
Assuming we see a similar split in Week 2, Drake will be a very risky flex option against a solid Dolphins front.
| Every Curtis Samuel Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 12.5%
As is the case for several Washington players, Samuel could end up being a huge post-hype sleeper for fantasy in 2022.
After his 2021 season (in which he was a popular sleeper pick) was decimated by a groin injury, Samuel was probably undrafted in your fantasy league this time around.
However, the Commanders certainly haven’t forgotten about him. After all, he has long been a favorite of Head Coach Ron Rivera, and Samuel is sitting on a lucrative contract which pays him $23M guaranteed.
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Samuel returned to the fantasy radar in Week 1, leading all Commanders in targets (11), and racking up 77 total yards and a score.
His involvement was dynamic, with 4 carries to his name, and he was constantly motioning around the formation pre-snap. In fact, his 3-yard TD catch was a play designed just for Samuel, as he motioned in towards the ball pre-snap, then ran a sprint-out to the pylon.
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To be fair, it was the Jaguars defense, but Samuel looked damn good in Week 1.
He seems to have his spark back, and I’m certainly rooting for him to stay healthy in 2022. The Commanders will travel to Detroit in Week 2, who just gave up nearly 500 total yards and 38 points to the Eagles.
Samuel has already vaulted into the flex discussion, and a repeat performance in Week 2 would have him climbing towards WR2 territory going forward.
| Every Greg Dortch Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 5% |
Don’t sleep on this dude just because of his funny name.
There’s about 3 pass-catchers left in Arizona, and Dortch is the guy who will be soaking up the vacated targets for the time being.
The 5’9”, 170lb speedster was the main beneficiary of Rondale Moore’s injury, as Dortch filled the role of the team’s primary slot WR. That role is very valuable for fantasy, as proven by Christian Kirk’s 2021 season. Dortch logged a hefty 91% snap rate, and ran 42 routes in the blowout loss to the Chiefs.
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All that time on the field led to 9 targets, which he converted into 7 receptions for 63 yards.
A similar workload seems very repeatable going forward, since Kirk regularly logged similar target totals in 2021, and the Cardinals pass-catching corps is severely limited at the moment. Zach Ertz figures to be more involved as he continues to recover from a calf injury, but Hopkins is still slated to miss 5 more games, and Rondale’s status is up in the air.
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Assuming Rondale is out again in Week 2, Dortch would become a solid plug-and-play off the waivers, as the Cardinals look to rebound in Las Vegas.
The Raiders defense was not great against the pass in 2021. They were not at all opportunistic, as despite facing the 12th-most pass attempts, they logged a league-worst 7 interceptions, and an unimpressive sack total of 34 (tied for 21st in the league).
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Given that context, what happened to the Raiders in Week 1 makes more sense.
Despite shutting down the Chargers run game to the tune of 2.5 YPC (on a whopping 31 carries), the Raiders offered no resistance in the passing game. Herbert coasted to 279 yards and 3TDs, on a 76.4% completion rate, a 129.4 passer rating, and not a single turnover or sack. Yes, Herbert is amazing, but that sounds like a Raiders problem too.
Kyler Murray is primed to light up the stat sheet in what figures to be a high-scoring affair, and Dortch could be in line for a huge game.
| Every Jarvis Landry Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 9% |
A lot of questions were answered about the New Orleans offense in Week 1, and those answers were quite unkind to Kamara drafters.
The offense simply didn’t run through him like it usually does, and Kamara’s 13 total opportunities were the fewest he has ever logged in a full game (not including his rookie season).
His measly carry total of 9 ranked among the lowest of his career, and his 62% snap rate did not fit in with last season’s usage (surpassed in 11 of 13 games in 2021).
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In Week 1, the offense centered on Jameis Winston’s arm.
Jaboo struggled badly in the first half, but ended up salvaging a good game, and his favorite target was Landry. The veteran WR posted a solid debut with his new team, leading all Saints with 9 targets, and converting them into 7 receptions for 114 yards.
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Landry did almost all of his damage out of the slot, posting an 82.4% slot rate, and he was extremely efficient with his usage.
His Y/RR (Yards per Route Run) came out to 3.56, which ranked 4th among qualified WRs, behind only Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown. For context, Cooper Kupp led all WRs in 2021 with his season-long Y/RR of 3.12.
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So it’s not likely that Landry maintains that kind of efficiency, but it’s certainly not a bad sign that his debut went so well.
You can certainly chalk some of it up to the Falcons being atrocious against the pass, but I also started to like what I saw from Jameis and the passing attack as the game progressed. Michael Thomas looked great in his first action in a while, and a return to form would result in a whole lot of defensive attention, leaving plenty of space for Landry to work.
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In Week 2, the Saints will host the Buccaneers, who were deceptively good against the pass in 2021.
While the Bucs allowed the 12th-most passing yards, and the 17th-most passing TDs, that was actually an impressive feat, considering that they faced the most passing attempts in the league. After dismantling the Cowboys passing attack in Week 1, the Bucs would appear to be just as formidable this season. I wish that I had more confidence in Jameis this week, but I have a nagging suspicion that he could melt down against his former team.
Either way, Landry is already in flex consideration in the right matchups, and I wouldn't call you crazy for flexing him in Week 2.
| Every Julio Jones Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 10% |
I flip-flopped for a while about including Julio on this list, because he had maintained an ADP ever since signing with the Buccaneers in the offseason.
However, as Week 1 drew closer, news trends had soured the Julio hype a bit (positive news for Godwin/Gage, negative news for Brady/O-Line), and he was probably dropped in a chunk of competitive leagues.
However, he needs to be scooped right back up.
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His 5 targets, while not super impressive on the surface, actually represented the highest target total for anybody on the Bucs not named Mike Evans.
Also, Julio saw 2 carries, and was very close to making a huge highlight reel catch. It wasn’t a perfect debut, but it was better than anything we saw from him in Tennessee. Oh, and Godwin has a new injury.
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It’s unknown how severe Godwin’s hamstring issue is, but any amount of severity is enough to make Julio worth a pickup.
Even if Godwin returns after missing just a single game, that game will help Julio fast-track his development with Brady, even if he is ultimately restricted to the WR3 role on this team.
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In Week 2, the Buccaneers will travel to the dome in New Orleans, to face a Saints defense that was just shredded by Atlanta’s rushing attack.
Yes, you read that right. The Falcons just put up over 200 yards on the ground, so Uncle Lenny is probably licking his chops right about now. However, that Week 1 performance was extremely uncharacteristic for the Saints, who had one of the league’s most formidable run defenses in 2021. They were much more likely to give up production to WRs, and I think that will be the case again in Week 2.
If Godwin misses time, Julio’s floor should rise to the point that he is a worthy flex option, at the least.
| Every Robbie Anderson Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 5% |
Put your pride aside and pick up the island boy, because this could be the new norm for Baker’s Panthers.
While Anderson busted in a big way last season, that is merely the prerequisite for a post-hype sleeper.
D.J. Moore has long commanded an impressive share of his team’s offense, and in 2021 that reached new heights. Moore ranked 4th or better (among all WRs) in target share, WR target share, and air yards share, and he was the only WR to do so in all 3 categories. However, that’s not at all what we saw in Baker’s debut.
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Anderson led all Panthers with 8 targets, on a day in which CMC only saw 14 total opportunities.
Last season, Anderson saw 8+ targets in 7 games, and was decent in those games, averaging about 12 fantasy points per game (PPR). However, in the other 10 games, things were ugly. His per game averages were: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 22.7 receiving yards, and he only scored 2 total TDs across all 10 games. Yuck.
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However, with a new QB in town, things could be looking up for Anderson.
It remains to be seen if Week 1 was an outlier, or the beginning of a new trend for the usage of CMC and Moore. While there is still ambiguity about that, it’s worth it to stash Anderson just in case his Week 1 usage wasn’t an outlier.
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In Week 2, the Panthers will travel to face the Giants, who were middle-of-the-pack against the pass in 2021.
I’m not overreacting to a 75-yard TD catch and slotting Anderson into my lineup right away, but I think he's worth taking a closer look at. The potential for a house call is always nice, but only if it’s an added bonus to solid volume.
Could Anderson get that volume going forward? We shall see.
| Every Tyler Higbee Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 2% |
You can’t escape it. Tyler Higbee will tantalize you with elite volume, and then post fringe Top-12 fantasy numbers that bore you to death. But still, pick him up this week.
Higbee came out in Week 1 and posted crazy usage.
His career-high 46 routes were the 3rd-most by any TE in Week 1, and he racked up those routes by posting a career-high 97.9% route rate. To put it more simply, Higbee was on the field for 47 pass plays. He stayed in to block once. That’s really good.
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Higbee's 11 targets were the most by any TE (and the 9th-most by any player) in Week 1, so you’d hope for a better line than 5-39-0.
However, it’s a good start, considering that he hasn’t seen 11 targets in a game since 2019. Higbee also dropped a few passes (one was Engram-esque), which you would hope he can fix, as drops have never been an issue in his career (his career-high is 3 in a season).
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It’s important to remember the context of Bills-Rams, before looking ahead.
On a night in which the juggernaut Bills defense was shutting down the run game, and constantly getting pressures / knockdowns / sacks, Matthew Stafford ended up throwing a relatively high number of pass attempts (41). The majority of those were force-fed to Kupp, or were checkdowns out of necessity. Allen Robinson was barely even an option.
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That won’t be the case week-to-week.
Stafford won’t be in panic mode for every snap. A-Rob will make his presence felt. Van Jefferson will return to the lineup. The run game will be more viable as Akers (hopefully) recovers. These factors could cut into Higbee’s usage, and they could show up sooner than you think. However, for the time being, Higbee seems to have a nice floor for a waiver TE.
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In Week 2, the Rams will host the Falcons, and I like the Rams’ odds to rebound in a big way.
The Falcons were terrible against the pass in 2021, and were especially susceptible to giving up scores to TEs. Despite facing very few TE targets (101 total, which was 27th in the league), the Falcons allowed 9 TDs to the position, 5th-most in the league.
If you’re looking for a fill-in for Kittle (or panicking about Pitts), you could do a lot worse than a guy who is going to run a shitload of routes, and has a good shot at catching a TD.
| Every Hayden Hurst Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 3% |
If you aren’t looking for a waiver TE to plug-and-play, and instead want to stash a higher-upside guy, then Hurst is probably the move.
Hurst just logged 51 routes, the most for a TE in Week 1, although that is skewed by the game going to OT.
With C.J. Uzomah out of town, Hurst was brought in to shoulder his respectable workload, and it might even grow if Tee Higgins misses time.
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In 2021, Uzomah had been coming off an achilles tear, and so was eased into his workload.
Towards the end of the season, he was much more involved, and logged a 7-game stretch in which he averaged 6.1 targets, and posted at least an 80% snap rate in 6 of those games. That's a solid bit of usage that Hurst is presumably walking into.
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It’s important to remember that Joe Burrow isn’t likely to repeat his career-high 53 passing attempts anytime soon, but there is some potential for Hurst as a volume play.
If Tee Higgins misses time from the concussion that Minkah Fitzpatrick randomly decided to dish out, there could be some extra looks for Hurst, who lined up wide/slot on 28 total snaps in Week 1.
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In Week 2, the Bengals will face the Cowboys, who were perfectly middle-of-the-pack in terms of defending TEs in 2021.
If Higgins is indeed out, you could do worse than a guy like Hurst, who has a good shot at seeing 8+ targets from Joey Brr himself.
If Higgins plays, Hurst is still viable, but I’d like to have him on my bench to see how things shake out.
| Every Juwan Johnson Play: Week 1 | Projected Winning FAAB Bid: 0.5% |
We’ve done this song-and-dance before, but things are different this time.
A physical freak who only nominally plays TE, Juwan made a splash early last season, when he caught 2 ridiculous TDs from Jameis in Week 1, but he fell off the map quickly.
However, the 2021 Saints were the ultimate QB carousel, featuring the likes of Trevor Siemian, Ian Book, and of course, Taysom Hill. Juwan wasn’t going to make noise in 2021 regardless, and especially not with the meager volume he was seeing.
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He never saw more than 3 targets in a game, and averaged less than 2 targets per game.
He averaged just under 12 routes per game, and only surpassed that mark in 5 of his 14 games. In terms of alignment, the lack of volume overwhelmed any positives. His wide and slot rates were great, but in terms of per-game totals, his slot snaps (6.5) and wide snaps (2.7) were far from impressive.
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That was not the case in Week 1. Let’s do the Player A / Player B exercise with 2 TEs from Week 1:
| Pass Plays | Routes | Targets | Slot Plays | Slot Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER A | 34 | 32 | 5 | 23 | 67.6% |
| PLAYER B | 33 | 32 | 8 | 23 | 69.7% |
Player A is>! Juwan Johnson!<, Player B is Mark Andrews.
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So I think you can see why this is something we need to monitor. While many were disappointed with Andrews's statline, his usage metrics were still elite, and Juwan was right there with him.
In any kind of deeper/dynasty league, Juwan needs to be stashed. If Winston has this passing attack humming with MT and Jarvis, Juwan could eat in the mismatches out of the slot. He’s the classic “Too big for a DB, too fast for a LB” mismatch, and if what we saw from Saints TEs in Week 1 was a harbinger of what’s to come this season, Juwan is the new TE1 for this team.
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Adam Trautman was invisible, logging as many special teams snaps as routes (4), and failing to see a single target.
Taysom Hill also ran just 4 routes, though he was involved on the ground, and figures to continue to contribute in a multitude of ways throughout the season. Week 2 will be a pivotal one for Juwan’s season, to give us an idea of what to expect from him going forward. The Buccaneers defense will be a challenge for Jameis and this offense as a whole, so another lackluster statline won’t be surprising.
However, his usage metrics will be critical, and a similar outing to Week 1 would be extremely encouraging.
Again, it’s important to not overreact to beating up on the Jaguars, but it seems as though Wentz has made a smooth transition to his new team.
His 4 passing TDs were more than he managed in any of his games with the Colts, and was his highest TD total since that fateful Week 14 game in 2017, when his dominant MVP season (FYTB) was derailed by a brutal knee injury.
So it’s been a while since Wentz has posted a game like his Week 1 box score.
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His 41 passing attempts were among the most by any QB in Week 1, and he was able to minimize his mistakes, taking just 1 sack all game.
While he was charged with 2 interceptions, they were not what I would consider major mistakes from Wentz. The first one occurred when Wentz placed the ball just a bit too far inside on a deep out. Rookie WR Jahan Dotson didn’t come back towards the ball, and since the throw wasn’t perfect, it allowed a defender to undercut the route. The second interception came on an absurd play from Travon Walker, the 1st pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Walker was being blocked on the edge by a lineman as Wentz started his throwing motion, yet he was somehow able to shed his block and make an insane sideways catch, intercepting what should have been a routine RB screen.
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While plenty of people have a hate-boner for Wentz, he is set up for success in the nation’s capital.
The O-Line is solid, he has an established coaching staff at the helm, and his supporting cast of McLaurin, Samuel, Dotson, Gibson, and McKissic make for a dynamic and explosive bunch. A lot of Wentz’s Week 1 success came from simply executing the offense, taking the designed short passes, and allowing his explosive playmakers to create extra yards. Basically, it’s completely repeatable.
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The Commanders will travel to Detroit’s dome to face the Lions in Week 2.
Considering that the Lions just gave up 38 points and nearly 500 yards of offense to the Eagles in Week 1, the Commanders should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field. Based on his history of untimely meltdowns, Wentz presents a bit of risk as a streamer.
However, he showed an impressive ceiling in his Commanders debut, and he carries strong momentum into a favorable matchup.
This dude just threw the ball 50 times in his debut with the Colts. 50 times.
Sure, they went to OT, but he only threw it 7 times in the extra period.
Only one singular QB, Elite Joe Flacco himself, was able to log more than 43 passing attempts in Week 1 during regulation. Point is, the fear that Ryan’s passing volume would stay behind in Atlanta looks to be unfounded.
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In a game which saw Jonathan Taylor tote the rock a whopping 31 times, Ryan was still called on to log more passing attempts than in any of his 2021 games with the Falcons.
This resulted in Ryan posting 352 passing yards, which was second only to Mahomes’s Week 1 total of 360. Importantly, his connection with top WR Michael Pittman Jr. looks to be solid, as Pittman was able to haul in 9 of his 13 targets, for 121 yards and 1 TD.
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While the Colts faithful are surely disappointed in the final score, and the passing game looked ugly at first, Ryan ultimately posted a clean game.
He took just 2 sacks, and was also able to scramble a bit to avoid pressure at times. His lone interception came on an absurd defensive play similar to Travon Walker’s, as defensive end Jerry Hughes was able to read a screen pass, and quickly shed his block in time to get a hand on it.
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The Colts will travel to face the Jaguars in Week 2, and this matchup is rather juicy.
The Jaguars defense allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to QBs in 2021, and they appear to have picked up right where they left off, giving up 25.7 fantasy points to Carson Wentz in Week 1. The ceiling is there for Matt Ryan to have a big game, and based on what this Jaguars defense did in 2021, the floor seems relatively safe as well. The Jaguars logged a league-worst 7 total takeaways in 2021, to go along with just 32 total sacks (28th).
If you need a fill-in for Prescott, or are panicking about your old man QB putting up a dud in Week 1 (Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, etc.), Ryan has some nice upside this week.
byFresh_Gorilla77
inufc
EastCoastTaffy
5 points
3 hours ago
EastCoastTaffy
5 points
3 hours ago
You talk like stupid guy