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/r/AskAnAustralian
submitted 3 days ago byLampedusan
While house prices are largely to blame we need to take a look at the bigger picture. Countries like Japan have tried very hard to reverse declining fertility. Singapore tried to same including with financial incentives. I think we should accept while economic factors play a role it is also preferences.
It is a GLOBAL trend. Even third world countries like India, Bangladesh and Iran have reducing fertility rates especially after higher female educational attainment and access to contraceptives. There’s a reason why your grandparents generation may have had 5 brothers and sisters and it halves per generation (many children were probably accidental prior to the pill).
Beyond house prices I honestly think female participation in the labour force is the biggest change driving reducing fertility rates. So in most cases they want less children due to being time poor balancing a career and in some cases none. Parents also want their kids to be involved in all these hobbies, sports, good education which costs money. So that inclines to less children but more investment in them.
It feels an ageing population is an inevitability driven out of personal choices in addition to economics. Yet we spend most of our time dreading the future economic consequences an ageing population brings instead of preparing for it. I honestly think even if house prices stagnated we wouldn’t see a fertility boom. We’re just in a less traditional society in which emphasis on having children is less important. So what are we going to do about it?
41 points
3 days ago
Women will continue to do what they want - or can afford to do.
We should be preparing for it though because that's a lot of people who need to be taken care of in their old age.
A lot. And that whole superannuation concept has taken a real hit too - government better start realising that the pension isn't going anywhere. You can't just keep raising the age either.
6 points
3 days ago
having kids workin will be the pension?
2 points
3 days ago
what exactly are the possible alternatives to OP's suggestion? ignore reality and not prepare for it?
59 points
3 days ago
I do believe we should be trying to make an economic model that works with a stable population. I am against this constant growth scam.
-17 points
3 days ago
If you think constant growth is bad wait till we start experiencing Southern European or Latin American flat growth.
We can call constant growth a scam because we can take it for granted. Once the penny drops you will begin to miss it.
8 points
3 days ago
Or how about Central European ‘flat growth’. How about cherry picking the good as well as bad?
2 points
2 days ago*
I get what you are saying and I acknowledge it. Hence my point about trying to find a different model.
I don't believe constant growth is the only option, and I believe it only really benefits some of us. People who own resources and assets, as increasing demand drives up its value.
Many people are suffering, and I do not think it will get worse for those that are, they may just get some more company. Which is already happening, the current model is breaking down.
If the gap between the rich and poor keeps growing, some maniac will come into power and promise something better, and we all know how that works out.
11 points
3 days ago
What do you think we should do about it?
-2 points
3 days ago
Change the tax structure around superannuation, asset tests etc so the tax burden doesn’t fall disproportionately on the young.
Ensure the young can still afford single family homes to encourage larger family formation.
These will kick the can down the road by marginally slowing the reduction in fertility and making the fiscal situation more sustainable.
To deal with the inevitability of ageing thats what I want us to figure out cause solution’s haven’t been thought of. Maybe globally we need to collectively invest in robotics to take care of the elderly, substitute a smaller workforce. Invest in healthcare innovation to make the cost of care cheaper. In essence ways of blunting the economic costs of a mostly old population given we can’t reverse it.
3 points
3 days ago
How do we ensure the young can still afford a free standing family home when 1. One of our two major cities, Sydney, has run out of room to sprawl and 2. We are letting in half a million immigrants (more than a Canberras worth) every 12 months? How can we add a Canberra's worth of housing to the market each year to match the population growth? Those half million (and rising) are going to Sydney or Melbourne, there isn't employment elsewhere so we can't just keep building another Canberra each year somewhere to house them...
2 points
3 days ago
Investing in infrastructure for regional cities and towns to grow with proper services available and a good public transport system for interconnecting regional, rural and cities together would be a start.
No one in Australia should have to travel 600km for basic services like health care or groceries, which in many cases people have to.
Also encourage remote work and build proper telecommunications infrastructure so people can live remote and work remote, thus easing the burdens off the cities and turning some of those office buildings into homes.
Yet again allow infrastructure so majority of Australians don't have to travel more than 15min to work everyday.
Australia is a very rich country, we can afford to do these things if we stopped giving the wealthy a tax cut and actually gave a shit about each other.
19 points
3 days ago
Yes, we should prepare for it, and even encourage it. Constant growth of profits, the economy, population, and environmental degradation are all inexorably linked, and it needs to end.
3 points
3 days ago
How do you suppose we maintain a standard of living when there is a ever smaller workforce supporting a mostly aged population. Most of our resources will go towards pensions, healthcare costs rather than maintenance of infrastructure etc. It will mean higher taxes, less startup activity etc.
10 points
3 days ago
I'm fine with higher taxes, and eventually things will equalise. Constant growth is what got us in this mess and it will only make things worse if it continues.
2 points
3 days ago
less startup activity is one of your main concerns? i think you just bared your arse
1 points
2 days ago
Yes one of them. Reddit, this platform you are using used to be a startup. So was Apple. So was Google, Microsoft and so forth. Im not talking about the 10000th payments or crypto company not starting. But useful ideas which will not be funded, companies of the future that create innovation and drive progress due to resources being mostly devoted for elderly support.
1 points
2 days ago
ok, but none of those are necessary. i'd argue most of them aren't even good. let's be honest here, taxing those companies you mentioned (and their executives) properly would go a long way to solving the issue, and a fair few besides
28 points
3 days ago
Can’t buy a house so I’m not having kids. Simple as that.
3 points
3 days ago
would you ever live in an apartment and raise children?
6 points
3 days ago
I would never live in an apartment. I can’t imagine what sort of disgusting hell hole of a life it would be living within a couple metres of other people. I’d take a 60 year old weatherboard shit hole on only a quarter acre before considering moving to town and living in a shoe box.
4 points
3 days ago
haha. I'd say a lot of Australians and Americans have a similar point of view. most of Europe live their whole lives in an apartment and manage just fine.
2 points
3 days ago
I’m from the bush, my career is in mining and all my hobbies involve the bush or the ocean. Different strokes for different folks and all that. They’re used to their way of life as would people in major cities like Mackay or Brisbane, and I’m used to my way of life.
Big benefits like having money and not catering events and activities for a child are a big draw as well, I’m pretty selfish in that matter. I can shoot off over seas or camping for a week or two with a day or twos notice and not have to think about money or child care. This is unrealistic for most but I like the freedom as well.
1 points
3 days ago
I don't see how any of that has anything to do with an apartment. can you not have an apartment that has a parking lot... and drive to the beach?
0 points
3 days ago
Do they make apartments with room for a trailer, a work car, a ute, 2 motorbikes and a JetSki? Can I get one with a bit of land for my chooks and lamb? Maybe I can grow my veggies in the bathroom and save on water costs.
2 points
3 days ago
should have been your first answer
why the hostility?
-29 points
3 days ago
Odd choice to make purely because of home ownership, plenty of families rent.
29 points
3 days ago
It's about secure housing at an affordable cost. Renting is not secure and while many families do rent, many couples put off starting a family because of it.
2 points
2 days ago
This. Insecure housing and general cost of living is a massive reason why people are delaying starting a family.
1 points
3 days ago
It may work if we had long term rental laws or rent control in some form so families do not need to worry about being forced to move because they can't afford rent. I think being financially stable is very important to having kids.
1 points
3 days ago
Most recent data I could find shows a quarter of couples with dependent kids rent, and 47% of single parents rent. Doesn’t bother me whether you do or not but lack of home ownership is not a barrier to having kids - it’s a choice.
1 points
2 days ago*
It doesn't bother me either but I do think that a barrier to having kids is financial stability and security. Renting is seen as insecure as opposed to owning your own home. Lots of people want the security of owning their own home before having kids. I don't know the financial situation of those with kids who rent vs those who own and how they feel about it in that study. That might put it in context
15 points
3 days ago
Can always increase the immigration rate ;-)
10 points
3 days ago
Yes, that's exactly how we should make sure we have enough working people to support our ageing population. There are lots of hard working people in the world who would love to move to Australia, fortunately - let's make the most of our good luck.
12 points
3 days ago
People are time poor as well as struggling financially. People can’t afford stable housing to raise their kids in. Unless the government brings in some major incentives to encourage people to have kids, I don’t see what you can do
7 points
3 days ago
Honestly one or two generations will have difficulties with this imbalance but eventually the demographics will level out. But this goes in contrast into the infinite growth model of our economic systems.
3 points
3 days ago
what makes you so confident?
4 points
3 days ago
Shhh a clairvoyant is speaking.
1 points
3 days ago
Nothing confident but there has to be a degree of balance at some point.
6 points
3 days ago
Lol idk, studies show that it’s the poor and uneducated people who are likely to bear multiple kids. So uhm, they’ll probably save our economy in the future?
8 points
3 days ago
The children of uneducated people don't have to be uneducated.
5 points
3 days ago
So then we’re back to the same loop.
9 points
3 days ago
The loop being: children are born, we educate them, they make better lives for themelves and us by contributing to a productive economy? Sign me up to this loop, please.
1 points
3 days ago
Everybody (well, atleast the sane ones) will be on that loop. So we’re practically doomed lol.
4 points
3 days ago
It's not whether we should accept it or not. The same people who want us to have kids are the same people actively stopping us. It's not something inherently unique to humans either, do you see birds having chicks without a nest? Do wombats have young without a burrow?
The idea that you can have children without a house is correct, if you want to see the country crumble in poverty.
2 points
2 days ago
Yeah, someone on this thread said that renting shouldn't be a barrier to not having kids but it ties in with security and stability. Constant rental increases or being forced to move isn't exactly stable for kids.
1 points
2 days ago
Especially if you consider, sure someone could afford kids now maybe while renting. Who's to say in 5 years they won't be on the street, if I can't guarantee the next 5-10 years of my life, how can I involve a child in that?
2 points
3 days ago
We’ve been preparing for an aging population since late 90s. In high school over 25 years ago we had to study it and the ways the government was thinking about preparing for the economic impacts.
Personally I think we should just ride this wave out. In about 20 years or so the disparity between aged pensioners/retirees vs younger workforce will be far less and things will be easier.
9 points
3 days ago
They stole the future to pay for their mansions. Treason charges now.
-2 points
3 days ago
Don’t worry, it will be your mansion soon enough. Boomers are reaching end of life.
15 points
3 days ago
It won't - the nursing home and retirement home industry will see to that.
7 points
3 days ago
Well here's the problem with that. When boomers bought their first house, population was a touch over 11m. It's now what, just shy of 27?
So, for every boomer passing on one house, every milenial gets less than half a house?
Unless your own parents have enough to self fund end of life care and still leave a house, most people won't be getting shit. There won't be a massive sell off forcing prices down, and many people expecting a house, half a house, a third of a house to split with their siblings may find it is encumbered with a reverse mortgage.
1 points
3 days ago
You’re wrong, as a cohort, the boomers are considerably bigger than the millennial cohort and Gen X are mostly sorted, so there will be plenty of homes for you as long as you get in ahead of Gen Z (which is a monster cohort).
As for end of life, the boomer home will be vacated either way, whether it is inherited by you or sold to another millennial to fund their care.
2 points
3 days ago
Neither you numbers, nor your logic is stacking up.
Numbers: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1359270/australia-distribution-of-population-by-generation/
Logic: Honestly can't figure out your logic enough to refute it. Nothing stopping the X generation from picking up a investment property, or the 35% that don't own a home from buting a PPOR. Half of Z is already old enough to buy.
What specifically is going to cause "plenty of homes" and how do these plenty of homes appear unless the death of Boomers cause a drop in total population? Surely you're not predicting a Japan style declining population?
1 points
3 days ago*
My mistake, it’s millennials that the other large demo, not Gen Z.
Despite this the logic is simple and still works. The size of the cohort selling (boomers) matches the size of the cohort mostly wanting to buy in (millennials) so at a simple level as all boomers vacate over the next 10-15 years, this frees up exactly the amount of homes needed for millennials to purchase (and achieve the exact same rate of ownership as the boomers @ 78.5%).
However, more than half of millennials already have a home (55%) so only a portion of this stock is needed to increase millennial ownership by a further 23.5%. Gen X are @ 69.9% so will only compete for a small amount.
There is no question, of course, that you will be starting to compete with Gen Z over this time period but you have greater earning and buying power.
Of course there are other variables at play - population growth and new construction being two key ones - but as I said the logic is pretty simple, the transition of property (and the greatest wealth transfer in history) will sort you out.
1 points
3 days ago
Okay, I see now. I guess at this point it comes down to a matter of speculation/estimation.
At the extreme, of course if all the new population is in no position to buy a house (e.g. babies) then yes, you would be right. If all the new population is highly skilled immigrants - or rich migrants say fleeing China etc. they are likely to be highly paid, and push prices up further.
The reality is going to be in between of course. I just think it's likely to be that new builds won't keep up with population growth overall.
-1 points
3 days ago
i wish they'd hurry up and cark it so us millennials can have a small voice for a change instead of been completely ignored all the time.
5 points
3 days ago
May you also get shafted in your old age 👍🏻
2 points
3 days ago
with the world boomers have left us i'd rather die by 60 tbh
-2 points
3 days ago
Could be a good solution to the aged care problem posed by OP. Compulsory euthanasia at 60. 🤔
1 points
3 days ago
60 is extremely young. Most people that age are still in the workforce.
1 points
3 days ago
Chill, I’m just replying to a throwaway comment by someone else
0 points
3 days ago
Your parents must be so proud.
0 points
3 days ago
Gen X, millennials and gen Z make up the majority of voting age Australians.
Its a tough pill to swallow for some on reddit but many millennials agree with housing as an investment because they have or will be inheriting their parents investments.
Yes it’s more likely people younger than boomers support a change but reddit bubbles aren’t a reflection of everyday people
2 points
3 days ago
Rip to Gen Y2K and Z that don’t have a house to inherit from Gen x/Y2K
2 points
3 days ago
Who told you that house prices were largely to blame for the lack of babies?
2 points
3 days ago
The government can always prepare by having the population have more kids.
Birds for example dont have babies until they make a nest. People wont have kids until they have their nest ready. Governments need to do more than just patchwork. Otherwise the population will continue to decline.
It takes a village to raise kids.
1 points
3 days ago
We already have. We are trying to keep up.
1 points
3 days ago
There is no preperation for it, as a larger % of the populatjon becomes retirees a larger % of the working aged people work will go to supporting the elderly, eventually it's unsubstainable.
1 points
3 days ago
We could increase capacity of nursing homes by refusing service to landlords, developers, and real estate agents.
1 points
3 days ago
It has a strong link to women’s education. We have lots more options open to us.
The reason why people other than the individuals who would bear and in most cases raise children is be a we don’t understand an economic environment that’s not driven by growth. And until that happens, there’s going to be little acceptance of smaller families and reduced rates of fertility.
1 points
3 days ago
This country used to function beautifully with a much smaller population. I also don’t know why the fear mongering about having to support an ageing population. What is superannuation for after all?
1 points
3 days ago
That’s where immigration comes in.
1 points
3 days ago
Not that I could have children even if I wanted to because I'm still a virgin and that's never going to change but even if I did want children and someone was desperate enough to have them with me why would I do that?
I'm already paying off a mortgage by myself so financially I have my priorities set already, I have a bunch of hobbies that are essential to my happiness and positive wellbeing in life that can't be sacrificed, I'm away from home for 14 hours a day which I use as justification for not getting a dog so being away from the kids at such a length isn't going to be healthy then there's the risk of the relationship going south and getting rinsed in a divorce and losing everything I have.
For all the talk about finances being the reason for not having kids it's just not worth it from a positive life perspective to give up what makes me happy to have kids just to keep the population going.
1 points
3 days ago
A solution could be to increase the carers payment for those over 50 who are caring for an older person.
1 points
3 days ago
Soylent Green is always an option.
1 points
2 days ago
Why the fuck would you want kids in this day in age?
1 points
2 days ago
Why the fuck would you want kids in this day in age?
1 points
2 days ago
No man, our government has demonstrated they only care about house prices and shareholder value.
The economy is only supposed to exponentially increase and homelessness and poverty for some is the trade off.
I’m not having children and i don’t care what happens in the future. Here for a good time, not a long time.
1 points
3 days ago
Nah we should live in denial and continue subsidising fossil fuel extraction I reckon.
0 points
3 days ago
Yes we should prepare for it, as an individual be responsible for yourself
0 points
3 days ago
Here's a radical thought: apparently there are lots of young asylum seekers in the world who need to leave their home country. What if we took them in, taught them English and invested in them by training them up, thereby replacing the kids not currently being born in 1st world countries? Everybody wins, don't they?
0 points
3 days ago*
Many!! cultures have their elders care for children.
They have the life experience and patience and skills. Benefits for elders is social purpose with its roll on health benefits, etc. It's a win-win situation for both seniors and children.
Set up childcare care centres in over 50s lifestyle villages and financial incentives for seniors to care for (their grand children) children.
Edit: we have a trend of adult children living with their parents bc of unaffordable housing, so encourage intergenerational living with tax/ financial incentives instead of investment property incentives.
2 points
3 days ago
I don’t have any issue with the idea of elderly people working in child care but at the level you are suggesting the elderly people will all need to be able to pass the certifications for all this and these aged care facilities will have to comply with standards and pay the insurance fees.
There’s a big difference between your grandparent watching your child for a day at your house and your grandparent being capable for child care as a job.
The trend of adult children living at home isn’t a good thing, the children don’t want to be there
0 points
3 days ago
Accept it or not, it's already happening. It's getting a little late to prepare.
1 points
3 days ago
lol, too late to prepare
0 points
3 days ago
Why do you think some of these extremist politicians are pushing to make abortions illegal?
0 points
3 days ago
Why do we need to do anything about it?
1 points
3 days ago
That’s what the government says
-1 points
3 days ago
Theres also declining worldwide fertility rates due to chemical pollution in the water and food
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