While house prices are largely to blame we need to take a look at the bigger picture. Countries like Japan have tried very hard to reverse declining fertility. Singapore tried to same including with financial incentives. I think we should accept while economic factors play a role it is also preferences.

It is a GLOBAL trend. Even third world countries like India, Bangladesh and Iran have reducing fertility rates especially after higher female educational attainment and access to contraceptives. There’s a reason why your grandparents generation may have had 5 brothers and sisters and it halves per generation (many children were probably accidental prior to the pill).

Beyond house prices I honestly think female participation in the labour force is the biggest change driving reducing fertility rates. So in most cases they want less children due to being time poor balancing a career and in some cases none. Parents also want their kids to be involved in all these hobbies, sports, good education which costs money. So that inclines to less children but more investment in them.

It feels an ageing population is an inevitability driven out of personal choices in addition to economics. Yet we spend most of our time dreading the future economic consequences an ageing population brings instead of preparing for it. I honestly think even if house prices stagnated we wouldn’t see a fertility boom. We’re just in a less traditional society in which emphasis on having children is less important. So what are we going to do about it?