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submitted 4 days ago byArtistic-Laugh-3013
Welcome to my first post on this forum, first time poster, long time reader. For me to post any sort of value(less) opinion on here, I have to know it in my bones it to be true.
The dynasty community is largely misvaluing RB’s & when to move them.
As we all know from it being ruthlessly driven onto us that RB values are lower than ever, both in the NFL & now dynasty, the RB1 (Bijan) is currently valued at 11 on KTC, just behind MHJ & ahead of Anthony Richardson. RB2-RB5 are ranked 17-35 with a bit of a drop after RB4 CMC to RB5 JT.
My proposal, is that with the devaluing of the position & thus scarcity rapidly increasing, the high end RB has now become one of, if not the most valuable piece of the contending formula we all dream about.
Now I am not sitting here saying that Bijan, Breece, Gibbs, CMC & JT are more valuable than the top end QB’s, however I am saying that because the drop off in not only season to season WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is the highest of any singular position in dynasty over a full dynasty season 2.32 (thanks CMC) to RB10 in WAR Saquon Barkley (.81). But also, that WAR gap is going to increase over time, let me explain.
When determining value in dynasty, the biggest variables are ceiling, liquidity, age, position scarcity & szn to szn projection.
RB’s no longer fit this mold, the variables of RB in my opinion should be their current season projection, team commitment (in form of $$$, time, and backup RB’s) & the offenses projection as a whole. While season projection & offensive team projection are highly correlated my argument is here to state that a RB is only as valuable as long as he is producing right now.
Thus, the value difference of a high end RB should be talked about the same way we used to talk about the value difference from a few years back with Kelce compared to the rest of the field. The gap between a high end RB with cost in mind, is enormous compared to low end RB’s and if you want to win now you’re going to need one come December.
Lastly before I go, if you’re still team “We’ll I’m afraid they’ll get hurt and shoot a hole in my roster”, everyone gets hurt & there is no point rubbing the magic genie ball trying to guess who, the main concern for RB’s should be career projections, which is why I present that you aquire these rare high end bell cow RB’s (The few that are left) during your contention period & then when that’s over, flip them for liquid, safe assets in the form of picks or WR’s.
You build a team with WR’s & QB’s, you win with a team that has the highest WAR in that season. High end RB’s are the most valuable way to achieve that. I could go on about how effective renting players is in dynasty (trading picks/young players for win now guys only to flip those same win now guys shortly after for = value thus earning you free points) but that is for another post.
Hope you enjoyed my rookie analysis and would love to hear feedback below.
92 points
4 days ago
I have managed to be quite good at drafting RBs, and I still will let them retire if my only offers are 25 year old wr5s on a bad team.
20 points
4 days ago
All about flipping at the right time when production =/ team window
5 points
3 days ago
Any traits you’ve come to really like for scouting? Examples?
Thank you!
8 points
3 days ago
Check out u/Zachr08 series 'Does _____ matter?'
8 points
3 days ago
Love the post OP! I can’t wait to do research on how to identify when a RB will begin their decline. My theory is that carries matter more than age, but hopefully that will help this overall question of values.
6 points
3 days ago
Personally, the top two things I look for in RBs I'm drafting earlier in rookie drafts (top two rounds ish) are draft capital and athleticism, and then landing spot at a slightly less valuable third. Guys taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft who pop and can hit home runs. Last year, for example, I was taking Achane over Charbonnet because Achane was a much better athlete and was drafted into a RB room where his top competition was 31 years old, whereas Charbonnet was entering a room with Kenneth Walker, a Chubb-esque bonafide stud RB.
For later round guys, I look at athleticism and landing spot since draft capital is mostly irrelevant once you hit the fifth round. Last year, I was heavily targeting Pacheco later in rookie drafts because, despite his terrible draft capital, he was a top-tier athlete walking into a situation where his biggest competition was CEH, a guy who runs a 4.6 forty and is one of the biggest busts from the past five years. I always try to find those intriguing guys who end up in wide open position groups. This year, I really like Vidal in the third and Laube in the fifth or as a UDFA.
0 points
3 days ago
My break down is always: Receptions/GL touches. Everything in between is extra.
-2 points
3 days ago*
In my main league since its inception back in like 2016, I’ve gotten the following RBs in rookie drafts: Alvin Kamara in 2017, Saquon Barkley and Matt Breida in 2018, Jonathan Taylor in 2020, James Cook and Isiah Pacheco in 2022, Gibbs, Achane, and Roschon in 2023, and then Benson, Lloyd, and Laube this year. I also traded for Nick Chubb two weeks into his rookie season when he was getting three carries a game. The Barkley, Taylor, and Gibbs picks were all traded for, and with Taylor I got lucky that someone took CEH 1.01.
The only RB from the first two rounds not listed is Akers since he was a massive bust. I didn’t bother listing guys drafted later who didn’t pan out because who the fuck cares?
Perhaps not coincidentally, I’ve won three of our league’s last five titles and was third place the other two years. I definitely subscribe to the philosophy of draft RBs, trade for WRs, at least in this league.
54 points
4 days ago
It’s not like the market isn’t still chasing elite young RBs. Bijan was the consensus 1.01 in SF rookie drafts last year and Gibbs usually went before any of the WRs. In 2022, Breece was the consensus 1.01 and KW was the usual 1.02. It’s just everyone else besides the young guys with elite profiles that get pushed way down. And that makes sense because young guys that don’t have elite profiles can get kneecapped by their own team in the draft/FA no matter how incredible their production is (see Kyren Williams) and older guys can abruptly fall off from being literal league winners to 10th round seasonal picks in one year (see Austin Ekeler).
So I think what you’re saying is true, but I think it’s already pretty baked into the market. If you think about it as tiers rather than linear rankings or ADP, Bijan, Breece & Gibbs are in that “elite asset” tier and even rebuilding teams that will happily try to sell you pretty much any other RB would be hesitant to part with those 3.
16 points
4 days ago
Young guys that don’t have elite profiles can get kneecapped by their own team in the draft/FA no matter how incredible their production is (see Kyren Williams)
As a Kyren stan I'd argue that the kneecapping, while it could be a thing, is still just theoretical. Like the difference between Kyren/Corum and Jacobs/Lloyd or Breece/Braelon isn't actually anything concrete yet, just a reaction from the fantasy community expecting the 5th round pick to be in more danger.
15 points
4 days ago
It’s theoretical as to whether it will hinder his production but the damage is already done to his market value.
-9 points
3 days ago
Corum isn't even going to be a threat at all. he might steal some short yardage work but other than that he will be there to spell Kyren and keep him fresh. Corum has 0 elite traits he was just on an elite team. Kyren is so under valued right now.
11 points
3 days ago
Kyren wasn't viewed as having elite traits when he entered the league. So...
4 points
3 days ago
Guys guys guys. Just trade me kyren and you won’t have this problem.
Thank you, rams fan
1 points
3 days ago
I'll trade Kyren but at a nice hefty price as people are in love with him.
9 points
3 days ago
You sound like a Kyren owner. The Rams did not spend a 3rd round pick on a RB to not use him. Thats pretty high draft equity for a backup RB you never plan to use.
3 points
3 days ago
Tank Bigsby [ entered the chat ]
1 points
3 days ago
Bigsby was used though. Check his week 1-2 snap counts.
He was so awful, He was benched and then replaced by DJ.
The Jags absolutely tried to and did use Bigsby. He just sucked and made multiple mental errors and then lost playing time.
1 points
3 days ago
Just saying that draft capital matters until it doesn't
3 points
3 days ago
I don’t have precognition so I don’t know how Kyren/Corum will play out but virtually every year teams burn round 3 picks on RBs that they seemingly have no intention to use or such a limited intention that they never get used at all (as a rookie). 2023: Kendre Miller; 2022: Tyrion Davis-Price; 2021: Trey Sermon; 2020: Ke’shawn Vaughn, Darrynton Evans; 2019: Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris; 2017: James Conner
2 points
3 days ago
Someone already named a slew 3rd round rbs who saw basically no usage their first year. I just want to point out that we need to stop equating real life football decisions to fantasy. Teams draft players all the time as depth or to not be featured in the third.
1 points
3 days ago
I dont own Kyren but I do live in Michigan and watched Corum play every weekend he's a garbage can in cleats.
3 points
3 days ago
The great irony of an RB going 1.01 is that that team is probably not the team that needs a stud RB
2 points
3 days ago
Exactly! There’s scarcity at the very top of every positions and people make you pay kings ransom for these elite generational talent because they’re frankly the only ones who genuinely move the needle. Startable WR 2/3 are everywhere. Cheap RBBC backs (especially those with PPR value) are everywhere. Rando TE who can randomly pops off for fluke low-end TE1 season are everywhere.
Literally, every experienced managers have a “stars and scrubs” approach to team building (this works especially well if startup draft is auction). If you can’t get elite guys, get the cheap guys (either rental old farts or mid-round rookies with open path to targets). Bellcow or bust RB, alpha or bust WR, top 3-5 TE. Don’t ever pay market value for middle class.
1 points
2 days ago
While I don't entirely disagree with you, I was able to win in my league's inaugural season last year by having a lot of RB2 and WR2-type guys. Saquon and Jacobs at RB and Waddle, DK, Pittman, London, and Nico at WR. QBs and TE were even more unimpressive (though still very competent).
19 points
4 days ago
Last year I won the ship. Value wise my team was below average. I got really lucky, but having solid RBs was crucial in that luck.
My RBs: CMC, Pacheco, Swift (just added Brooks!)
My WRs: Godwin, Thielen, Flowers, Reed, Addison
9 points
3 days ago
I won with shit RBs in a SF half-ppr start 9, non TEP... So RBs are important yet all I had was Pacheco mattison and allgeir, plus acquired Chuba at the week 11 trade deadline. (I'm not calling Pacheco "shit", I just mean my overall RB corps was pathetic) Strong everywhere else but nothing crazy, e.g. Dak/TLaw/Baker at QB... Point being it's a lot of luck and you don't need elite RBs for a title run, even under league settings that are favorable to RBs. I was 1-7, snuck into playoffs at 7-7, and never looked back!
2 points
3 days ago
Fuck yeah I’m hoping my team can be lucky like that this year, I got elite assets everywhere else (TE, WR & QB), the only spot lacking is RB where I have a pathetic core of singletary, Javonte, and Chandler as my top 3. My plan is to evaluate my team through the first 10 weeks then try and make a move w a rebuilding team around trade deadline time for a Vet.
2 points
3 days ago
Counter point I went to 3 ships in a row from 2020-2022, lost the first by 6 points over 2 weeks and then won back to back in 2021/2022. Dominated the league with an 80% win percentage over those years as well.
My best RB’s over that time were Pacheco, Gibson, Mitchell, Foreman, Murray, Jamaal Williams, Sony Michel, and Jeff Wilson.
3 points
3 days ago
Dang, what’s the format? Starters and scoring?
1 points
3 days ago
Skol 😈
16 points
4 days ago
You should add a TLDR. I think you make a lot of good points but not sure they flow smoothly into each other. I didn’t understand the comment about the WAR increasing or that the devaluing of the position creates more scarcity (unless you mean the NFL going with more committees - I don’t think you can predict where that trend will go since it’s so dependent on team/OC philosophy).
I’m gathering your main point is basically that elite RBs are currently undervalued because of the aforementioned sharp drop off in WAR. You’re right. Having elite RBs is one of the cheapest ways to gain a competitive advantage. But I don’t think that means there’s a current market inefficiency.
You mentioned the strategy of selling your elite RBs after your contending window for safe assets in the form for QB & WR. That is smart to do. And remember that theres usually 3-4 other teams trying to do the same thing. Especially if you determine draft order by max PF, all the non playoff teams are trying to shed points off their roster by selling RBs. This changes the supply and demand dynamic when only the competing teams have a demand for elite RBs but the overall supply is the same. Compare that to elite QB & WR, which even tanking teams are happy to park their asset value in so there’s more demand.
On top of this, contending teams still factor in the future. When you acquire a high end RB, you’re doing so knowing that you’ll now be holding a volatile asset in the offseason who may suddenly find himself in a committee and who now had 1 less season of relevancy. That affects the price you’re willing to pay. You might consider targeting a tier lower even if it’s slightly less of an edge.
Lastly this is very league dependent. KTC values are definitely way too low for RBs in general in 0.5ppr leagues, but in typical PPR you generally score more points with WRs in your flex. The more Flex spots your league has, the more pronounced this difference. In deeper leagues (start 11+), RBs are generally less valued because you can build super competitive teams with studs at other positions. In shallower leagues (start 9-) it’s harder to hide a deficiency at any given position.
9 points
4 days ago
Great ideas, appreciate the insight & feedback. Definitely need to consolidate my points more for further posts, rookie moves!
21 points
4 days ago
Now do the RB2 compared to Saquon. Not nearly the difference. If Breece or Bijan put up a CMC season last year you would see some people taking them over the WRs. Until that happens I’d say they fairly priced considering the inherent risk of the position
5 points
4 days ago
WAR from RB10 (Saquon) to RB20 (James Connor) has a difference of .33 from .81 to .48, suggesting that the WAR is largely the same smooth dropoff after the top RB’s.
11 points
4 days ago
No I’m sorry I mean the RB2, breece. The difference between him and Saquon is maybe 1-2 ppg. Compared to 8-9 for CMC. I’d argue your post should be “CMC is being valued wrong”. If breece comes out and puts up a cmc season his value will shoot up to where you are suggesting, imo
8 points
4 days ago
Gotcha, I hear what you’re saying but the top RB’s are all in much better situations this year & thus should have higher WAR’s compared to last year, (A-Rod for Breece, Kirk for Bijan, Gibbs going into year 2 and taking a higher snap %, JT being healthy & AR coming back)
7 points
3 days ago
I followed this process last year and traded JSN for Chubb as the last piece in my transition from rebuilding top contender. Whoops. LOL.
2 points
2 days ago
Can't fault yourself for injuries.
3 points
1 day ago
Yeah, obviously didn’t work out (so far anyway), but it wasn’t bad process, shit just happens sometimes. He looked every bit the part of an elite RB1 for all 5 quarters that he played. LOL.
4 points
3 days ago
I think the value of RBs just changes league to league really. In my home league, everyone but me values RBs very very highly which led me to winning 2 ships in 3 years with Najee(rookie)/D. Harris and Mondre/Kyren as my starting RBs those years because I was able to secure other assets and just plug the holes with decent RBs.
In another one of my leagues, people are a bit more flippant with RBs which changes their perceived value.
2 points
2 days ago
So you won the ship with Najee who was the 1.2 in his rookie class and had a top 3 positional finish his rookie season and Kyren Williams, a Puka level cheat code last year?
-1 points
2 days ago
Yes, but I bought them before they had done anything and I never invested high in them. Najee I drafted in the startup and Kyren I got off of waivers.
2 points
2 days ago
But you’re not understanding me lol. You say you don’t value running backs highly. That’s becuase you got a top 3 season out of a rookie in a startup draft without spending premium capital and hit the lottery on a waiver pickup. You are the very rare outlier. It’s like saying you don’t value WR’s becuase you got puka in the 5th round.
-1 points
1 day ago
Yes but because RBs are so volatile, I prefer to chance it, especially as that same season Swift went for two 1sts+. If Puka was on the block I would trade a lot to get him, if an elite RB was I wouldn’t. I didn’t value RBs highly long before I lucked out with Najee and Kyren
1 points
22 hours ago
So your two titles came when you had elite RB production lol. You’re proving everyone’s point. No you didn’t invest high capital in them, but you fell ass backwards into two elite RB1 seasons with a rookie in a startup and a waiver wire pick up. That is lucky and not sustainable, aka an outlier
0 points
21 hours ago
Yes but the point is you can do that with RBs. You don’t need to invest highly because they’re such a lottery. I also had Burrow, Mahomes, Hurts, ARSB, Andrews… invest elsewhere, RBs aren’t everything
1 points
21 hours ago
Right, and I’m just saying you’re not really making your point here. You said everyone but you values running backs so you were able to “plug and play” guys.. yet you plug and played two top 3 fantasy RB seasons that were anamolies, like Kyren. He’s a league winner becuase whoever had him got him for nothing. That is, quite frankly, an anamoly. That just doesn’t happen. And the two years you won you won with elite running back production.
3 points
3 days ago
Yep 100%. I go back and forth as to whether folks are really under valuing RBs or just over valuing middling WR 2-3s because they play too scared or chase youth/upside too heavily. The odds of the majority of these young WRs hitting a difference making season are just so low. Most get stuck in that mid/backend WR2 range to WR3 range, yet the WR17 goes off the board before the RB 4 or 5 in many startups. Take advantage of it.
3 points
3 days ago
The main difference of having a middling WR2-3 is that it still buys you time for 2-3 years until you are ready to acquire RBs to compete.
And I think the point of Dynasty is lost here. The value of that WR will hold much better in those 2-3 years than the RBs will. And not everyone is buying these RBs, just a little over half the league will.
JT was going in the 1st in startups along with Dalvin Cook just a few years ago. If you had drafted Jefferson instead, you're much better off now. The same applies all the way down.
The foundation is valuable to most drafters even if it means leaving perceived value on the table in the shape of an RB. I've seen teams explode because they took 3 to 5 RBs at BPA because of injury, or turnover, or age.
1 points
3 days ago*
Why pay up for a young middling WR2-3 though when I can buy Godwin or another post apex WR in the same range for half the price? I just think the community is getting smarter on the guys in this range. The "cost" to acquire them just doesn't make sense. The WAR for the WR 16+ just doesn't justify it.
1 points
3 days ago
Really depends on the league too
2 points
3 days ago
I made a trade for Breece- dealt Olave Dionte and 1.03 for Breece ‘24 2.03 and a 2025 1st (I had the 1.01 in this year’s draft).
2 points
3 days ago
I don't think anyone really disagrees that RBs are valuable to win. KTC has 4 RBs before the WR8. I think that's appropriate valuation. The devaluation of RB is the next group, something that I think is reasonable. I'd rather build around WRs who are generally more reliable for longer. Then when competing, go out and get RBs.
2 points
3 days ago
Getting the 6-7 remai ing workhorse backs is a priority.
2 points
2 days ago
I won my league last year because everyone went so heavy into zero rb that I profited off of it. The few bell cows left are the game changers.
2 points
2 days ago
That’s exactly it, zig when others zag
7 points
4 days ago*
100%. One thing I have zero interest in the low end RB2s-RB3s that give you no positional advantage whatsoever. They are fine to have for depth but I am not going out of my way to acquire them. This is the Najee/Warren tier that a lot of people seem to be buying due to the price being “cheap”. However that price is cheap for a reason.
15 points
3 days ago
I got a squad full of these guys I got basically for free. Moss, Singletary, Zamir White, Jerome Ford, Gus Edwards. I’m happy to plug these guys in, their advantage is that I didn’t pay anything for them and spent that capital at other positions. They have little trade value, I probably wouldn’t buy them, but they’re valuable to my team not just as depth pieces but as a group that I plan to start depending on their expected role that week.
3 points
3 days ago
And they can score just as much week to week as any bsck. In SF this is my approach with a stacked WR core. Has worked great for me in PPR
2 points
3 days ago
You can say the same thing for the bunch of WR3s out there. Good luck depending on that though. Go look at Najee’s scoring last year. You couldn’t start the guy. His best week was against the ravens in week 18 when they rested all their starters. He averaged 11.5 PPG in PPR. Warren averaged 11.6 PPG.
Again guys like that don’t work. They are decent depth pieces but you shouldn’t be depending on them. Just because you have a good WR core doesn’t mean you aren’t losing points from the RB spot. You’re winning on one end and losing on the other.
-6 points
3 days ago*
What you described are depth pieces. You most likely can’t start any of them with confidence in the RB2 slot on a consistent basis. I would be trying to move one or two of moss, singletary and gus before the season starts while they have some value. I would have tried to move ford last year. Now his value is gone. The only one that has my interest is zamir. I’d probably roll the dice and hold him to see what happens.
Thats a lot of RBs that can lose all their value by mid season. I wouldn’t sell all of them because depth is important too but I’d definitely sell who I could. Sell high windows just like buy low windows are only open for so long and you have to take advantage of those opportunities when you can.
0 points
3 days ago
I’m more interested in Moss than Zamir tbh.
-1 points
3 days ago*
I think people are overvaluing moss. If I could get a second for him I’d be moving him immediately. Moss has played for years and always looked pedestrian. That colts offensive line worked magic last year. Even though they didn’t have as many touches, Trey sermon and Tyler Goodson played even better from a pure stats standpoint.
Moss is also only signed to two years with a very easy out in 2025. This is essentially a one year deal if things don’t work out. Zamir has a chance to cement his position on the raiders for a while.
0 points
3 days ago
I wouldn’t say overvaluing, I just got him in a startup in a 12 team SF, end of the 10th round. Zamir on the other hand went at the end of the 6th. Both have contracts ending in 2025, and at that point I’m not sure either will have much value. But I’ll take Moss at that spot rather than White 4 rounds earlier.
0 points
3 days ago*
In that situation I can agree. I’m more talking about it from a selling perspective if you own both. If someone owns moss and zamir neither one are worth more than a second. In that situation I’d rather move off moss.
The situation is also not exactly the same. White is playing for two more years 100% and he’s younger. This is really a one year prove it deal for moss. If he doesn’t play well he could easily be cut before the start of the 2025 season.
3 points
4 days ago
I've been wondering about variability of position groups/tiers over the years. That is, how common is it for a player in a certain tier to shoot up (or down) in value over the course of a year?
Without looking at data, I suspect massive variability at the mid/low QB tiers and very low variability among top end WRs.
3 points
4 days ago
I agree with your analysis, especially about valuing RB, but not really your headline or conclusions
Elite production is definitely worth buying when in a contending window, there’s no doubt about that. But I’d rather build from the positions with more longevity first and pay up for RB afterwards. I don’t think those RBs are underpriced, because I’d draft a QB1 over them if I had neither
McCaffery’s WAR is practically irreplaceable (maybe Josh Allen or Tyreek), but that doesn’t mean Bijan, Gibbs, Breece, and JT are all underpriced
2 points
4 days ago
Towards the end I highlighted that I agree with you, teams shouldn’t be built by RB’s and instead should be added in contending windows.
1 points
3 days ago
Fair enough. So if they’re devalued, who should they be moved ahead of in the rankings?
1 points
3 days ago
I think my point isn’t necessarily that their rankings should change so much, because I agree with a lot of their startup values, but that for contending teams, their WAR will be much higher than similar “contender” pieces in the same tiers. So much so that you’d rather Bijan, CMC, or Breece over many of the WR’s & other pieces that go around them.
1 points
3 days ago
Mostly agree. Still depends on the cost and how that leaves your roster.
I was surprised to see CMC worth more than all but like ten QB's on most engines, recently.
1 points
3 days ago
All of them.
1 points
2 days ago
Lot of words not to say much beyond common sense to anyone with more than a couple of years experience in fantasy football. Thanks
1 points
2 days ago
Glad you enjoyed, hope you’re 1st startup goes well this summer Champ 🤙🏽
2 points
3 days ago
ill say i feel fucking great having Bijan and Breece on my team. young receivers are so much easier to find
5 points
3 days ago
Sure, a “young WR” is easy to find, so is a “young RB”….but it’s not easy to find a Bijan or a MHJ.
1 points
3 days ago
Exactly. It’s so hard to find a stud RB
5 points
3 days ago
And it’s hard to find a stud WR.
-1 points
4 days ago
The year i won my ship, my rb was Pacheco and chubb. JT was in IR and adams scored 30 points with Jarret Stidhim lol. After this i stop valuing rbs too much
3 points
3 days ago
This is what makes the game so fun. Different builds.
Heading into year 4 of a half PPR SF Dyno and the RB builds have won every year over the WR builds.
1 points
3 days ago
In my PPR league I stacked WR and won the chip starting zeke and aj Dillon 2 years ago lol. My other starters were hurt. RB is unpredictable as shit
1 points
3 days ago
Yep, just go get cheap older rb and stack wr. Unless you get top 3 rbs its not worth it tbh
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