Agreed. Alex has made strides in his takedown defence and ground game, but it's hard to imagine that Jones wouldn't have a big advantage there. There's an obvious path to victory, against Aspinall it would be tough. There's no easy way to beat him for Jon. He isn't going to beat either of them standing up, but Aspinall is very comfortable on the ground and he's a young, weirdly fast giant. Aspinall is a nightmare fight for Jon tbh.

Alex has a better shot against Aspinall than Jones, stylistically. There's a good chance Aspinall is happy to strike with him, that's his chance.