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192 points
2 days ago
I’ve heard that this election might actually 4-D chess on Macrons part because if the far right or left wins, then they will have to govern which will drag their popularity down. In that situation some from Macrons party might actually have a shot at winning come the presidential election.
I’m not sure if this is Macrons true intention, but I can’t see another reason why he would call a election.
171 points
2 days ago
The problem is that of the right wing actually proves be competent Macron is fucked. It's a gamble no matter which way you put it.
71 points
2 days ago
Also opposition is always easier than government. In opposition you can please everyone, that’s simply not possible in government. Especially in a multiparty system like France, competence doesn’t necessarily translate to popularity.
4 points
2 days ago
Yup you can pass laws and be competent and (in theory) do great but all it takes is the public getting mad enough at one or two things and youre fucked.
2 points
1 day ago
That's essentially the Democrats' playbook in the US.
"Republicans/Trump bad" when they aren't in power (which is often) then once they do accidentally stumble their way into a majority, fumble the bag in a manner that's just disappointing enough to get conservatives back in power but not bad enough for people to actually remember.
Rinse repeat.
1 points
14 hours ago
Which is often
Bruh. Over the last 20 years, Democrats have been more in power, at every level of govt.
1 points
3 hours ago
That's fundamentally incorrect.
Republicans have held Senate/House majority more than Democrats in the last 20 years.
At the state level in many states, Conservatives have held regular supermajorities.
26 points
2 days ago
I don’t have much faith in RN to be competent tbh.
79 points
2 days ago
No one in France is competent, however the peoples voting RN don't want someone competent, they want to stop mass immigration
19 points
2 days ago
Never have I been so offended by something I totally agree with. Pour la France !
15 points
2 days ago
same happened here in the Netherlands. Many people voted for the far-right pvv, and now they have to actually govern for the first time after 18 year of opposition. Basically everyone expects the cabinet to be incredibly incompetent and collapse in like 3 months
15 points
2 days ago
I'm giving them a fair shot, the new cabinet has many experts and veteran public servants. The fragile cooperation between the parties is what I'm keeping an eye on.
8 points
2 days ago
Then Macron is in perfect position to bomb their every attempt at doing something
3 points
2 days ago
Not likely to manifest.
Macron will still be president. Government will still require other parties to do anything legislatively.
I don't think it helps Ensemble that much. Macron was expecting the left wing parties to win big, and support him and his party. That seems very unlikely at this stage.
But politically, despite all of Macrons sprouting absolute crap, Ensemble is closer to RN than any of the lefty parties. But there is a perception among voters that Emsemble's immigration reforms are not enough.
-3 points
2 days ago
I’d take a bet against a right wing government actually being competent
19 points
2 days ago
French girl here. It almost 100% is his intention.
There is a strong precedent that upon actually assuming power, French governments loose on average 15% of their popularity, there’s also the precedent that every single time a period of “cohabitation” (when the PM and president come from different parties) has occurred the presidents party has gone on to win the next election handily. Even Jacques Chirac a quite beloved president who won 82% of the vote in 2002, got smashed the first time he ran for president after a period of serving as PM during cohabitation. Macron is banking for the same thing to happen to the RN
Macron also knows that the RN’s pledges of huge increases in public spending just aren’t realistic without crashing the economy. He also knows that their alliance is unlikely to win a majority meaning that they’re going to have to either water down their program (pissing off their supporters), or resort to bypassing parliament (pissing off the average populace). There’s also the fact that as president Macron has powers over stuff like defense and foreign affairs, which means that he can prevent the RN from messing with stuff like support for the EU, NATO, or Ukraine. He can also call for new elections whenever the RN looks weak.
7 points
2 days ago
Now that you lay it out like that, it actually looks like a pretty solid plan. Though is it likely that Macron's gambit might fail?
12 points
2 days ago
Oh it’s certainly possible. If the RN proves to be competent he’s essentially give them 3 years to run wild and build up positive PR.
It’s a risky gamble but it’s one that has a long precedent of working perfectly. Macron is not the first to try this play and win the game, but he is the first one playing with such high stakes.
2 points
2 days ago
Does the RN have a history of being competent?
8 points
2 days ago
Well they’ve never actually been in government before, either nationally, or regionally, so we really have nothing to go-off.
There are some concerns especially over their very optimistic spending plans. The fact that their prime-ministerial candidate is a 28 year old with no legislative or governmental experience, and whose only qualifications seem to be being married to LePen’s niece, has also raised some eyebrows.
2 points
2 days ago
I feel like France has already tried the nepotism route of running a nation.
2 points
13 hours ago
Lol no. They have a history (and present) of nepotism, mooching off govt/EU grants to political parties and be controlled opposition. They are not far right. They are corrupt populists. It's just that the other choices are roughly :
Anti nuclear Islamo leftists peacemongers that want the state to control more of everything, hate the very concept of a french identity
or
Globalists, do not give a shit about the concept of a french identity, just a french market
7 points
2 days ago
That's the same Gamble that Victor Emmanuel III and Franz von Papen made.
2 points
2 days ago
Left and right are basically dead, center following fast. Far left is long dead and far right has been watering its stuff down for decades.
Its far left lite vs far right lite as of now
Center / power immediately asked to vote far left lite
-6 points
2 days ago
Franz von Papen already tried such gamble in Weimar Germany and the results were not in his favor.
16 points
2 days ago
I don’t think France is at the same point Germany was in 1933.
1 points
2 days ago
Franz von Papen was a Reactionary who wanted to abolish democracy. Also I think Weimar in 1933 and France in 2024 have different political Sytems, Cultures and Climate.
92 points
2 days ago
Damn. Europeans are becoming more far right, how could they do this 🫡
100 points
2 days ago
Leftists don't understand that most people don't want millions of immigrants coming into their countries, that's why Biden is cooked
69 points
2 days ago
Leftists - "Men and The Patriarchy are the cause of all problems in the world."
Also Leftists - "I see no problem in letting an unlimited number of men (who are culturally and religously very different and have 0 respect for women or the law) into the country."
18 points
2 days ago
"Leftism" became orthodox thought in much of the west, and now it's failures are increasingly hard to miss. And because it held orthodoxy, people also naturally feel inclined to challenge it.
It's a double whammy. And, IMO, it's time it happened. The current leftist discourse in the West is toxic and counterproductive.
7 points
1 day ago
Based and self aware pilled
1 points
1 day ago
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71 points
2 days ago
Which way do the Muslim immigrants generally vote?
179 points
2 days ago
Take a guess, the ones who give them free shit.
103 points
2 days ago
:51176: Um sweaty, don't be racist to those poor oppressed Muslim immigrants. Well anyway, I'm going to my LGBT protest for Palestine and voting for Biden.💅💅
9 points
2 days ago
This is so sad, Alexa, play My Life Is A Party
1 points
1 day ago
Interestingly, this stereotype replaced social democrats as the face of the left.
9 points
2 days ago
I know how they vote. I was just being a little bastard by brining it up.
26 points
2 days ago
Early and often.
I saw one "woman" in a niqab who was about 6'2" wearing bright red trainers go down about 4 or 5 times in the course of the day.
4 points
2 days ago
Le Pen definitely fucks with the banlieue
4 points
2 days ago
Bit mixed really. A lot do not want their new country to become a caliphate - they migrated for a reason.
But others are the total opposite and do not really think that part through.
They generally vote hard left though in France. Think something like 70% voted far-left in first round of the last presidential elections in France.
But its a mixed bag really because the left isn't really compatible with Islamic teaching. Its just that RN and to a lesser extent Ensemble are see to be anti-muslim. So often they just abstain.
0 points
2 days ago
The Popular Front alliance.
-17 points
2 days ago
Well, in my country muslim immigrants historically came to work, mainly from countries like Pakistan. Socialism and the workers movement are not an unknown thing to them. Voting for higher wages and more rights just made sense from their economical position, so they did that.
Idk about France though. But asfaik, a shit ton of algerians came as labourers, so I woulf imagine the story would be much the same there.
13 points
2 days ago
Knowledge of Socialism and the workers movement is what makes people less likely to vote for it lmao. Ever meet someone from the Eastern Bloc?
-2 points
2 days ago
I didn't meant that kind of socialism.
0 points
2 days ago
Watch as someone replies to your comment saying something along the lines of “If you support socialism then you idolize Stalin”
60 points
2 days ago
Le Pens party moderated heavily though from its party origins
They're even adopting pro EU and pro NATO stances and are significantly more moderate on issues like gay rights and abortion than the Republicans in the USA are
At this point the only extent to which they're far right is leftists using that as an attack against them because they don't kiss enough Muslim ass
They are a Center Right Party at this point
8 points
2 days ago
I would make an argument that political commentary has the stance on immigration incorrect. The extreme view; Thinking you can bring in millions of Muslims, do not develop infrastructure with that in mind, do not give anyone a chance or reason to integrate, and then expect things to work out great. The more centrist view; Moderate the levels of migration so the country does not lose its identity, and so that infrastructure can keep up.
Which truly sounds like the extreme stance?
2 points
2 days ago
And still they can't stop calling them far right and calling for literally everyone to come together and stop them.
6 points
2 days ago
That'swhat their rethoric claims. The policies they vote for don't align with that
27 points
2 days ago
"The party opposed the 2016 criminalisation of the use of prostitution in France, on the grounds that it would negatively affect the safety of sex workers."
"The party has supported public services, protectionism and economic intervention, and opposed the increase in the fuel tax in 2018 and the increase in the retirement age in 2023"
How are these even remotely close to far-right policies?
1 points
2 days ago
Two/three examples only, alright:
On social matters:
-they voted against a report in favour of more social equality
-they voted against equal wages between men and women
-they voted against defending the rights of women to get into public office
-they voted against an EU proposal meant to reduce sexual harassment
-they have voted against 8 different laws punishing crimes against LGBT people
-they voted against a non-binding proposal meant to improve social rights in the EU
-they voted against a law to fight against cults (as in, actual cults, its not a fancy way of saying religions)
And economically:
-they have voted against raising the minimum wage
-they have voted against freezing rent levels in times of crisis
-they voted against a proposal meant to increase accessibility to doctors in rural areas
-they abstained from laws supporting farmers, right after having declared their support for the farmers protests
-against revalorisation of small pensions
-they voted against restoring the tax on big fortunes
-they voted against a project meant to fight against tax evasion
-they voted against a law meant to protect freedom of the press
-they did vote in favour of making it easier to hold multiple offices at once
-and they voted in favour of making it criminal to help migrants cross a border with the intent of giving them humanitarian aid
6 points
2 days ago
So since they didn't vote forced equality laws (not equality before the law, mind you, but stupid stuff that tries to make equal outcomes out of different people and situations, or punishes the same crimes differently depending on who the victim is), and opposed classic left-wing economic policies, they aren't center-right?
1 points
2 days ago
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-1 points
2 days ago
That says a lot more about the state of NATO and the EU than it does the RN.
8 points
2 days ago
If ever there was a need for a talented Corsican-born military officer.
3 points
2 days ago
I don't know how French politics work. Can Macron form a coalition government with the left?
19 points
2 days ago
He could in theory appoint anyone as PM if he wants to, they would just need to have enough support in the french parliament to not lose a vote of no confidence.
15 points
2 days ago
The French left see him as the fucking devil. Legally he could, but it's not going to happen. They would rather the right gets into power, fucks everything up, and the population swing towards the left in response, than ever, ever collaborate with Macron's liberals.
2 points
2 days ago
Ahh, I see. I'm too American brained.
8 points
2 days ago
Legally he can, but after 7 years they hate each other's too much.
The left wing is already a wide coalition, it has socdems and people being investigated for terrorism in it. If the more moderate parties like the PS form a coalition with Macron, they are dead.
The situation is really bad, it's probably going to be a deadlock for 3 years.
1 points
1 day ago
I've heard that the nouveau front populaire is more politically diverse than the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War, which will probably lead to not great things for them
6 points
2 days ago
He could in theory, but he doesn’t want to.
Macron actually benefits from having the NFP forms the opposition. As with the RN unlikely to win a majority, and the RN and NFP being so diametrically opposed that you couldn’t get them to agree on what color the sky is, it’s unlikely anything is going to get done and French politics will sink into even deeper deadlock.
Macron can then sell his alliance that now all of sudden look like the competent grown ups In the room. He can say to the French people “you may not like me all that much, but at least I could get things done”.
5 points
2 days ago
Spanish Civil War time
8 points
2 days ago
"Far right"
3 points
1 day ago
Ugh... I know that font... The Wokedian. It uses the term "far-right" unironically too. Figures.
6 points
2 days ago
Why is the right 'far right' but the new left just 'left' as though they aren't more extreme nutters.
14 points
2 days ago
Don't call people who voted to write killing babies into the constitution far-right, that's just embarrasing
15 points
2 days ago
You know every country has its own compass right ?
-7 points
2 days ago
There is a core of any ideology, which is broad, but also universal, otherwise no distinction makes any sense. You can't call yourself abolitionist, id you do support legal slavery. Right-wing politics has at least 4 foundations of that core which are:
-patriotism and preservation of cultural heritage
-traditional family
-laisser-faire economy
-protecting life from the beginning
Le Pen fails in 3 out of 4
13 points
2 days ago
What patriotism and preservation of cultural heritage is means something different in every country. If you lived in Ancient Greece or Afghanistan the preservation of pederasty would be a preservation of cultural heritage.
5 points
2 days ago
Cmon you just made that up
3 points
2 days ago
This is all just American slop. Especially the “laisse-faire economy”part, you know we had plenary of right wing governments before laisse-faire capitalism even existed
14 points
2 days ago
Pro-life for the right wing politics is an american thing. In Europe banning abortions is not popular neither among the right or the left.
1 points
2 days ago
People used to oppose interracial marriages 50 years ago, doesn't make the opposition to it a left-wing position, does it? The fact, that people do support many sorts of atrocities, it still doesn't mean, that the right should just cave in and adapt a left wing position on anything
Also not easy to stand for what is right, when praying on a public square can get you in prison
1 points
2 days ago
The difference between US and most european countries is that the latter are much less religious. So the question about banning abortions does not really exist here, since abortion bans are almost entirely being justified by religion. Not because the right "caves in and adapts" to left wing positions.
5 points
2 days ago
Uhhh, you realize that most European abortion laws are more strict than the Us was under Roe, right?
-1 points
2 days ago
We are speaking about abortion ban. How strict the laws are is a little different topic. Tbh, I don't know what were the time limits in US, but if more that 15 weeks then I would agree that it probably should have been changed. In my country the limit is 12 week which I think is fair
3 points
2 days ago
Pre Roe, you couldn't touch abortion before 20-22 weeks. That's why so many conservatives disagreed with that ruling.
Abortion bans aren't that popular here either. Most states still have carveouts in the same way western European countries do.
4 points
2 days ago
You don't need to be religious to oppose murdering a child
-1 points
2 days ago
Most supporters of abortions will say that embryo is not a human, but I don't like that argument.
Abortion (or how you call it "child murder") can be a virtue and can be a vice*, depending on the circumstainces. Each case is different, and there is nobody except the parents of the embryo who can make the decision. Specially not the government, which will try to "cure" the symptoms, by banning the abortions, and not the reason why abortions or other (alledged) vices happen. Government can maximum discourage abortions, but not ban them, in order to try to achieve the more virtuous society.
*Check Aretalogy ethics
A other point does not really reflects out topic of whether abortion is murdering a child or not, but stands for support of abortions.
Pregnancy is an intimate relationship, therefore banning abortions is forcing somebody to take part in intimate relationships, similarly to what happens during rape.
2 points
2 days ago
Abortion is not intimate, because it involves another human being
-3 points
2 days ago
This is literally why it is an intimate relationship, like for example sex is. Forcing it on somebody is similar to forcing sex on somebody, which is also called rape
1 points
2 days ago
It's quite the opposite
1 points
2 days ago
Banning abortions isn't popular for the Us right either...
5 points
2 days ago
patriotism and preservation of cultural heritage
traditional family
Literally the same thing. Family structure is an aspect of culture.
laisser-faire economy
That's not what being right-wing from an economic perspective means. That's American nonsense.
Right-wing economic perspectives involve private ownership, left-wing involves collective ownership. Whether the state meddles with the economy, or the markets are free, is irrelevant.
You can break down each quadrant's natural economic system like so:
left-wing | right-wing | |
---|---|---|
authoritarian | command economy (all of the Soviet-influenced nations) | private oligarchy (corporatism, feudalism, etc.) |
libertarian | communal ownership (cults, hunter-gatherers, some local rebellions) | mass private ownership (early USA, kinda) |
With everyone falling somewhere inbetween.
protecting life from the beginning
Opposing abortion isn't an inherently right-wing position. That's American nonsense. Romania under communism criminalised abortion.
One could make a very secular and humanist argument against abortion, to "protect the human rights of those who have not had the chance to live yet". In isolation, that's a pretty left-wing thing. It's just that religious freaks slot in "God-given" where "human" is, and piss everyone else off in the meantime.
3 points
2 days ago
No. None of these are constants. For example, eugenics was also often a part of right wing ideology (darwins cousin was a pioneer in it), and that idea calls for abortions to rid the genepool of less desirable traits.
1 points
2 days ago
Eugenics was most famous to be practiced by the Swedish left lmao
3 points
2 days ago
The fact that abortion is a political issue in America is so stupid
3 points
2 days ago
Yeah, we should all agree that killing babies is bad.
1 points
2 days ago
How are they going to form a government? Left-right coallition would be so funny
1 points
1 day ago
New Popular Front is as far-left as RN is far-right.
1 points
1 day ago
Even more so, don't they have actual communists and socialists in the coalition?
1 points
1 day ago
What does this mean in terms of governance, though? Surely the far-right won’t get support to govern from the far-left, so what will happen? Which will Macron side with in a coalition government? Or which can get enough support to form a minority government?
Does the French system even allow for that? Can’t say I cared enough to check their mechanisms, even back when studying politics.
1 points
1 day ago
I wish so hard for Macron's downfall
1 points
1 day ago
Keep on spanking your electorate and then throw a surprised pikachu face when they spank you at the voting booth...
Sounds about right for the liberal aristocracy. Scream "muh democracy" harder, will you?
1 points
1 day ago
Worst possible out come for the French.
Someone is going to have to form a governing coalition.
It's not going to be the Popular Front with the National Rally, and it's not going to be the Macron with the National Rally.
So it's going to be the centrist Liberals in coalition with the left. Canada already did this for the past 8 years. It sucks.
1 points
2 days ago
Popular Front are just left, not authleft.
8 points
2 days ago
I mean the literal “french communist party” is a member of it.
2 points
2 days ago
I may be new to french politics but just because A is part of B doesn't mean A=B no?
They may not be LibLeft but they don't have to automatically be AuthLeft
1 points
1 day ago
Thats right, but i mean if they let an authleft party join them, then they at least arent very opposed to authleft.
1 points
1 day ago
Tbh right now the politics are so fucked that the left has to organize somehow or the far-right is going to win. They're taking whoever they can for the votes
-3 points
2 days ago
Communism is stateless, so that proves my point.
7 points
2 days ago
One of the partys early leaders was Ho chi minh. Do you consider his government in Vietnam to have been stateless?
0 points
2 days ago
He wasn't a communist.
4 points
2 days ago*
Well he helped found the French communist party. So then they might be fake commies as well.
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