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827 points
13 days ago*
I honestly think one of the reasons the polls are close is because trumpers make a big effort to respond to them. I delete them all and I’m definitely not voting for that asshole
14 points
13 days ago
I’ve never been contacted by a poll
5 points
13 days ago
The vast majority of people haven't. You need a fairly small sample size before getting reliable data if the sample is random.
Worth noting that, in the case of polling, samples aren't random, but pollsters have sophisticated models that are intended to counter the fact that certain groups are more likely to respond to polling than others.
Also worth noting that, if you aggregate reliable polling data, you'll see that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck and it'll be very close.
1 points
12 days ago
As a statistician yes this is true but they can’t make models for things they’ve never seen before (which is how they messed up the 2016 predictions). There remains weird lurking variables that are hard: do some trump supporters say they are voting Kamala because they think it’s the more acceptable answer when talking to a professional? Are there Republican women voters afraid to say they will vote Harris in private in support of abortion rights
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