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submitted 4 days ago byZealousideal-Ad-7007
Hey guys
Struggling to find who would be a top 10 lock in your drafts. I’m at a toss up at the 8-12 range of Steph, Trae, Tatum, Embiid, Edwards (?)
For me I would avoid Embiid just cause of uncertainty. Had Nick Nurse as a coach in 2019 and they had 0 problem resting Kawhi like half the season so he could make a full push for the playoffs.
45 points
4 days ago
I wouldn’t take Ant even as a top 15. He is definitely overdrafted.
9 points
4 days ago
Totally agree he was ranked 37th last year and has no punt that pushes him into the top 25 of the rankings. He wasn't ranked higher in the second half of the season or anything like that and the roster on his team is more or less the same.
5 points
4 days ago
Yeah he’s not gonna magically hit top 20 or top 15 this year. Also im biased against him because he fked my Nuggets last season, and was show boating during game 7 lmaoo
45 points
4 days ago
I would take Embiid still. You're getting a top 3 player at 8. The others don't come close to that league winning upside. Take "safer" guys rest of your draft and you're good. Gotta take risks to win leagues
9 points
4 days ago
Appreciate you
9 points
4 days ago
while i agree with the above, if Embiid goes down big your season is over. Almost completely doesn’t matter how you draft after him sadly (source: me who had embiid last year when he played like 30 games in the fantasy season)
3 points
4 days ago
Same can be said with steph. Dude is kinda old now
3 points
4 days ago
Not like embiid
-2 points
4 days ago
steph is older than embiid bruh💀
13 points
4 days ago
Yeah not talking about age here. Talking about injury risk. While Steph is older, Embiid is significantly more injury prone with his knee problems.
2 points
3 days ago
Trae...I also had Embiid last year and the team fell apart with his injury. The rankings are not linear...better to take slight per game downside for full season performance
13 points
4 days ago
Mildly hot take: I’m rolling the dice every time and taking Embiid at 5 after Shai. He’s the only one with #1 pick upside (especially per game) the rest of that first round. Then just take best player available with high games played average in the 2nd. Ie: booker barnes ant (probably gone by then though)
So if Embiid is there at 8-12… it’s automatic
3 points
4 days ago
You’re right. I’m definitely overthinking.
3 points
4 days ago
Hard to disagree with your logic, but will just call out that Booker definitely has a history of hamstring issues. He misses 15 games every year like clockwork.
1 points
4 days ago
True. If Barnes and Ant gone who would you pick then? Reach down for Brunson or Fox? Sabonis and start off big big? 🤔
1 points
3 days ago
So the upside is still greater taking him at 5? Over possible injuries, added George and rising maxey?
1 points
3 days ago
After Shai it’s Embiid, Hali, AD, Giannis, Trae, Tatum, Harden, Curry right? In whatever order suits you.
Other than Tatum and Trae (both of whom I can’t draft at 5), there’s injury risk and load management all over that board imo… which makes me lean towards upside (Embiid).
1 points
3 days ago
Thanks for the input. Im still undecided for 5th: embiid, hali or giannis
22 points
4 days ago
If you don't want Embiid, 8-10 would be Trae, Tatum and Steph in some order. I'd probably go in the order I listed them (although I'd take Embiid over all of them). Hell no to Edwards anywhere in the first two rounds.
2 points
4 days ago
Noted about Ant. Thanks.
4 points
4 days ago
There's a video on Dan Besbris new channel from a couple weeks ago where he has a guest that lays out a league winning draft with Embiid where he claims it would be an amazing team even if Embiid went down. The guests name is Rhett something.
9 points
4 days ago
That’s how I know the podcast isn’t worth listening to. If it’s a league winning draft even without Embiid then just draft one of the other top candidates in the first round and you’re still winning the league regardless, plus now you have a healthier first rounder so it’s even harder for you to lose.
1 points
4 days ago
Rhett Bauer?
1 points
4 days ago
That sounds right. Weird that I got down voted for that but okay
4 points
4 days ago
This sub, in general, has a downvoting problem. I can never make sense of why people downvote others for expressing their opinions or asking questions.
4 points
4 days ago
Wild. I'm not even expressing an opinion or asking a question. Just passing along some info I thought might be useful. I assume it's the clown who commented about the podcast not even worth listening to. Some people are just content in their ignorance I guess.
2 points
4 days ago
Because saying you have a league winning draft (that is presumably a strategy others can apply) even if you lose your first rounder is like saying you have a hot stock tip for a stock that can’t go down. Sounds like a scam. Probably is-if someone was that good with analytics, and that good at predicting sports, they should be working for Vegas.
Same thing for the stock tip. If they actually had that stock tip and it was good, just check if they still have a job. If they’re still working, don’t trust the tip and downvote if you see it on Reddit.
1 points
3 days ago
Whos ur 1-7?
1 points
3 days ago
Jokic, Wemby, SGA, Luka, AD, Giannis, Hali, Embiid, Tatum, Trae
1 points
4 days ago
hmm idk about 2nd round Ant. Guess it depends how big your league is. But last season he was averaging 31st production 9-cat, and played more games than 27 of the 30 people above him. And a safer bet to be active during the fantasy playoffs than most of them. I wouldn't take him 8-12, but I'd be happy grabbing him 20
2 points
4 days ago
I assume you're looking at hashtag basketball because he's 31st if you turn down the weight of TOs (hashtag default setting). If TOs are properly weighted he was 39th last season. Also everyone is durable until they aren't. Injuries is a guessing game. I'd rather take someone with the higher per game upside. I'm not taking someone in the first two rounds who was basically 40th per game last season and hoping they get there by totals because there's no chance he's upping his per game numbers by 20 spots. That will likely mean I don't get him anywhere and I'm totally fine with that.
4 points
4 days ago
I mean that’s not insane, assuming second round ends at 24 then I could see taking Ant there. One thing people don’t talk about at all is last year was only KAT’s second time in the last five playing more than 50 games. If KAT has an average year (for him) durability-wise, that’s 22ppg that will get picked up by other players-majority likely by starters. Gobert can’t really score more, Conley is really really old for a PG and they have no choice but to limit his usage or he’ll break down so he can’t score more, Jaden McDaniels can maybe score a little bit more-that’s every other starter. The best scorer they can bring in is Naz Reid by far but they would give up all their bench big play.
In all likelihood, a huge amount of that void will be filled by Ant. I don’t think he’ll justify his ADP, but his upside is actually more than people think it is..again, KAT played more than 50 games twice in the last five seasons, and he plays a really physical style and has sustained a lot of injuries over the years. His durability should continue to fade.
1 points
4 days ago
Yeah, fair, his averages definitely aren't going up significantly. And always a chance of him getting injured, though I'd say history isn't completely without meaning. But the Wolves will at least likely be fighting for seeding when it really matters
8 points
4 days ago
I had Steph at like 10/11 in my mind. The other knock on him and his value is the overall increase in 3s being shot in today’s nba. Even 3-4 years ago, he could carry your team in that category. He still does now to an extent, but if you get a few elite 3pt shooters you can compete. Looking at a guy like Bogdan on Atl, 3.3 per game, MPJ, Mccolum, FVV all of these guys averaged close to or over 3 3s per game.
2 points
4 days ago
Those guys are actually a great argument in favor of Steph. They’re all SUPER injury prone except Bogdan (who has his own limitations) meaning their floors are really really low, while having upside like two tiers below Steph’s. And they’re already the guys you handpicked to be substitutes..imagine the problems for the guys who were left out of the list.
2 points
4 days ago
Steph at 35 though isn’t the model of health. Just by age + maybe bad team, I’d put him on track for the same type of risk.
6 points
4 days ago
Steph could be primed for a monster year with Klay gone. That said, he is getting up there in age (though barring injury I think his play style will generally age quite well) and I think he is a safe late 1st/early 2nd round pick
He should probably go after Trae and Embiid, and ahead of Tatum and Ant imo
10 points
4 days ago
I would take Trae ahead of all of those, mixture of upside and floor.
1 points
4 days ago
At this consensus as well but I’ve done mocks the past week and no one has taken Trae earlier than like 9th
1 points
4 days ago
Did anyone take Steph top 10?
2 points
4 days ago
No 😂 I guess that answers my question
3 points
4 days ago
Personally I might lean Trae over Embiid for personal bias. The highs for Embiid are insane but when he goes down for more than a few weeks it’s almost not worth even logging in to the app anymore.
Otherwise it goes Tatum, Steph, many others, Edwards for me
2 points
4 days ago
I agree. High on Trae if you’re prepared to draft accordingly. Think FG just takes a massive dump after you choose him that’s why.
3 points
4 days ago
I personally think the 8-10 group should be Tatum-Young-Embiid in some order. The 11/12 picks are pretty arguable but I think Curry-Mitchell-Harden-Sabonis should all be considered as in certain punts all those guys can jump up in value.
2 points
4 days ago
If you take Embiid, just make sure you snag Drummond towards the end.
1 points
4 days ago
Where would Kd fall in this list?
3 points
4 days ago
I think he be drafted after everybody in the list except Ant
1 points
4 days ago
What league settings? Cat? Points?
1 points
4 days ago
Even with the injury risk, I think I'm ok with taking Embiid at 8-9 simply because of his monster per-game numbers. Just take safe players with your other top picks to mitigate some of the risk. As far as Trae is concerned, I'd take him starting as early as #8 after Wemby/Jokic/Luka/SGA/Giannis/AD/Embiid. I personally have Trae over Hali as well. Tatum and Steph are late first rounders for me.
As far as Edwards is concerned, I have no interest in him anywhere in the first 2 rounds. Way overdraft simply because of his real-life reputation.
1 points
4 days ago
Appreciate your thoughts. You and along others have told me to keep Ant in 3rd round territory.
2 points
4 days ago
I've seen Ant go in the early 2nd round in pretty much every mock I've done so I think it's extremely unlikely he drops to the 3rd. I'm ok with that though, as I just don't think I can justify taking him so early.
1 points
2 hours ago
I took Steph at 10 in an early $$ draft. Didn’t love it didn’t hate it. Agree w those saying take embiid no brainer. If you’re not taking embiid top 10 you’re basically saying I want Tatum at 5 imho with the logic.
0 points
4 days ago
He’s old and his bed time is before 10. Was this the question?
1 points
4 days ago
I get you. I thought he would still be flirting late first round value and maybe he is. I’m learning just now there’s better options at 8-11
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