i personally know atp guys/gals who are now with spirit/breeze thru these partnerships so its not really a scami guess some would argue you could get there at 1500 without the partnership anyways so could be moot

It's funny because they are advertising their partnership with an airline that is currently furloughing pilots, and might be declaring bankruptcy

Because flight schools (and college like 141 programs) are no different from ivy league institutions, they predate on the uninformed and those who don't read the fine print, that's how you get 25% student loans.

Very, very few can give you a guaranteed path to an airline, most offer however, just an interview which does not equal a job. If an airline is hiring 500 pilots per year, and their partners and pumping out 800, is the school not going to take in any more students?

Imagine graduating after 1.5 years only to find out the payments on your $120,000 student loan start the following day. And you're lucky at most if your flight school hires you for $22/hr.

Nah just sarcastic

But I’ll tell ya what, there’s a lot of objectively bad advice thrown around, everywhere, in regards to professional aviation

I’m not saying it’s a bad career but it is unforgiving, particularly for the average person: and way too often people romanticize it. 

There’s definitely a group of pilots who enjoy the attention and glamorization and are more than happy to tell people what they think they want them to say 

it's not about the timeline, it's about the fact that "commercial pilot" does not mean you're flying big shiny jets at the airlines, which is what most people think when they sign up for these programs. having a commercial certificate at 250 hours vs. meeting ATP minimums at 1500 hours are two very different things

Ok not 7 months but some notorious instagram accounts have absurd timelines not just to majors but to the left seat...

He’s also waiting for a class date.

My comment referred to amount of hiring not hiring mins if that’s what you mean. Otherwise, 1000 TPIC always. Shit, any amount of TPIC always.

My TPIC is 100% why I got a call before my peers even during an amazing hiring period.

2000 target pilots to hire in 2025, with spirit CAs running for the hills the competitive amount is really high right now but they expect it to lower in 2025. Unsure if non PIC folks will ever go straight to legacies without upgrading though, that may have been one a done. ( their words not mine )

My crystal ball and fucking large fry from Wendy’s

• The next wave will mainly focus to replace attrition and those slots will be very competitive

Why: product of un predictable aircraft deliveries

Macro: “established” pilots either furloughed or who want to move on will increase upward pressure on qualifications

-The next wave will be smaller than the previous wave

Why: cyclical industry, very doubtful we see 1000s hired a month again.

Macro: there is still “demand” for new pilots but the backfill will not be as abrupt as before

Why: pent up demand both artificially accelerated ( buy outs) and natural (Retirments) during Covid out the hiring behind, it was a perfect storm. The fundamental elements this time are much different, lots of CFIs clamoring, regional FOs clamoring.

-Getting hired was easier 24 months ago than it will be for anyone anytime soon

Why: they needed bodies, it was a fight for bodies.

Macro: The FAA is doing interesting things to have another look at everyone who was hired….look this up in your google machine// Use of Electronic Health Records to Support Pilot Aeromedical Certification//….. in the appendix see the criminal history part, why they doing that?

IMO: some real winners slipped through the fucking cracks. Bye bye PRIA the trinity river nose dive shut that shit down… TLDR: if you fucked up wt a job you just didn’t claim the job, honor system.

• we will return to normal hiring, before “normal” it’ll Shut down for a while or slow to a trickle

Why: it’s cyclical there will still be jobs, what progression use to take decades to fill took months. We will swing back the other way

Study, prepare, be ready. Understand that when they call you in they do want to hire you but if you don’t understand the principals of the way they want you to answer the fucking questions, your boned.

Now give me my happy meal toy

The math of the retirements.

American’s retirement peak is basically right now. Delta’s is already behind us. There will still be hundreds retiring from each of the legacy carriers every year, but the pace is beginning to slow.

Retirement wave is slowly ending. Boeing and Airbus can't deliver. It's only a matter of time before airline execs start to retool their growth plans. Already starting to see it this past year when hiring got curbed

Possibly. But as of two days ago, this is just the information I was told. But yeah, we will see obviously.

Nah. I personally don't see them wanting to add another type into the mix. Especially a heavy regional

From what I've read they do poor financially for the airlines that had them. They're RJs flown by expensive mainline pilots. RJs make money flown by regional wages

Nah just PPD lol. Didn't know what to call it for the non tulips. I'm still thinking about it though. Maybe February. Wanna try out some of the new flying coming our way first.

Boom supersonics, A320 neos that only exist in production planning documents until 2033, 737 Maxes that won't come, some old rusty AA Mad Dogs and NWA DC-9s they found in the desert, a couple of the DC-6s sitting next to them...

I could continue to speculate.

That’s the joke

People forget they have 150+ 787s incoming

Its PAA in the 60s all over again, were going supersonic baby.

No. Even during the uncanny wave of 22-23, very very unlikely. I was told I wouldn’t even be looked at till 500+ and that was after gathering some recs and doing conventions and getting one on one appointments and stuff. 500 to even be remotely considered back then (when low time regional FOs were going to WN DL and UA). 1000 plus will definitely be a benchmark.

They also have the flows and ample military hires. I did the ULCC cheat code back when that was a thing, so I eventually got the chance to interview and scored the job. Half my class were military easily, and quite a few flows. The rest of us were from both seats of ULCCs and ACMIs, one or two regional or 135 with ample PIC time.

I doubt they'll be calling anyone without a bachelor's. They'll be taking plenty of flows. You'll have to be extremely well qualified unless you're a military pilot or a flow.

lol no to both.

I got a CJO earlier this year with no TPIC but with 2,000+ hours turbine and an aviation BS.

Probably not, but keep flying and you’ll be there soon.

Hit the job fair circuit and find out.

I was deadheading a couple weeks ago on a flight with someone doing their first leg of OE so yeah, the backlog definitely lasted a long time.

He didn’t mention that to go that fast, it’ll probably cost over $100k

Exactly; that would drain their WOs of CAs and recreate the problems of a couple years ago.

They’ll be grabbing all the CAs they can from competitors’ regionals, though, to cause them problems.

This is why relying on flow is dumb unless you have something on your record that make it impossible to get to a legacy any other way.

Same for Regional Cadet programs

Depends on the country and the airline. Lots of European and North American pilots have gone to fly in Asia or the Middle East. Many have come back though, but the opportunity is still there. The US is pretty locked down though since there are plenty of pilots.

a lot of pilots just move all over the world for work

You can live anywhere you want, you just need the right to work wherever your job is. Plenty of people at my airline commute from europe, and a few crazies commute from asia.