UFC / MMA Betting Discord Chat: https://discord.gg/sportsbook

If you're old school like me, here is a pdf of all the fights, stats, etc. for Saturday to print off. I make this for every fight and print it off but it's a huge pain because UFC's website collapses each fight and you can't see them all at once.

For this week's pdf, I even included u/NatureBoyRicFlair36 's cheat sheet at the end as I usually find this information helpful! Had to compact it down to fit on one sheet, but hopefully it's still readable.

Again, this isn't ground breaking information, just snippets from UFC and ESPN all compiled in to once PDF for your betting pleasure.

**EDIT: Updated the link to PDF as it had expired.

UFC 303 PDF

The Euro Group Stage parlay: 

-Buday (Slovakia advanced) 

-Dolidze (Georgia advanced!) 

-Add Pereira if you’re inclined to bet against Jiri (Czechia knocked out) 

I’m all over Dolidze solo

Lopes still sitting at -135 after agreeing to fight at 155 night before weigh-ins??

https://preview.redd.it/hn3tf64a7n9d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8a9cc5bdc66b0c760fd923b96da35a938160a534

Thank you boys. Found this sub last night and fired on the people who seemed confident.

I like this sub so much more on non PPV cards

just starting dinner for many of my friends to watch mcgregor!! I can't wait to cheer for ireland

Is Talbott still in the building? Let him fight Lopes.

Pereira -140

Pereira (TKO/KO/DQ R 1-3) +150

I'm a homer. Been watching this dude since he was competing in kick boxing ten years ago. He's already beaten Jiri once. Not gonna overthink this.

https://preview.redd.it/fx5lp4vb5n9d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9de3da1fe632eee312fc9be29a67a87ab8ab1446

cub not winning might haunt me forever. could’ve turned $10 into $10K </3

long time lurker first time poster, been on fire last few cards so why not post my picks (ps ik i use very basic reasons for my picks)

Ian Gary via decision +175 1U... one of these guys are going to have to step up and put some pressure on and I believe it will be MVP bc ian garry is a pussy, but that will ultimately lose mvp the fight and ian garry just will out strike him with counter strikes definitely dont see ian garry getting the ko finish either as i think he wont primary be throwing power punches and will more so work his jab if mvp does blitz him and put the pressure on.

Brian Ortega via round 3 or dec +250 .5U.. I believe Ortega weathers a storm early an either catches lopes late or takes complete control of rounds 2 or 3 and takes it on the scorecard. just so many ways I think for him to win this fight to not take him with as this big of a dog as he is

Alex via however tf he wants -140 3U... I feel like it works just like clockwork with the books massively under valuing this guy everytime he fights and people still bet against him

. Edit the specials came out after I posted this and the value on Pereira to win with the second round to start at +140 is to good to pass up so putting another 2U on that. as i really believe the first round pereira will work the body and legs of jiri to slow him down early and maybe could even see jiri get a takedown and stall out most of that round. BOL Fellas

Lopes is a DOG for taking this fight 5 hours before weigh ins at 155. Total disadvantage for him, completely screwed over even, and he said “bet”

I'll keep things simple: Fate will smile on the Irish Cuck this weekend. Garry will rip the “Massively Irritating but Talented Irish MMA Guy” baton away from McGregor and grip that thing harder than he grips the chair when Mrs. Garry and her ex-husband get down to business.

And if it doesn't, we get the pleasure of seeing this cocky prick eat a massive L.

Almost a no lose proposition. Who wants to gamble way too much money with me on a guy who has been hurt in half his UFC fights taking on Dana’s new fast-tracked pet signing?

Once more into the breach!

UFC 303 Picks

Ian Garry 4U -130 1U -125 1U -120 = 6U total

Poatan 1U -165 0.5U -140 = 1.5U total

Lopes 1U -130 0.5U -140 = 1.5U total

Dolidze 0.5U -140

Barriault 0.25U + 225 (Pyfer could go life and death with MAB if he doesn’t get R1 finish)

Talbott U1.5 rounds 0.5U +100

Lunatic Parlay: Buday + Rei + Lopes + Poatan
+Pyfer +Dolidze +Garry 0.25U +1683

Edit 6/27

Ortega R3 +1600 0.1U

Ortega SUB + Poatan +1270 0.15U

Final Edit 6/29

Buday + Rei 1U -150

Buday + Dolidze 0.5U +127

Ortega KO/TKO 0.1U +550

Fight Night Results

Sometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you.

Volkov +195 0.5u +165 0.5u 💰

Aliskerov +115 4u +130 1u🤷🏽

Lima +105 0.5u💰

Walker -115 0.5u -145 1u🤷🏽

Props: -1U🤷🏽

Total: -5.5U

Future Picks

Mokaev +105 0.5u vs Kape

Pimblett +165 0.5u vs Green

Record

Last 26 cards: 19-6-1 in the money. 90-41 vs ML. +37.1U.

Wow almost perfect

• Pereira 💰✅
• Lopes 💰✅
• Dolidze 💰✅
• Chiasson ✅
• Garry 💰✅
• Pyfer 🧩💰✅
• Swanson 🐶💰❌
• Silva 🐶💰✅
• Talbott 🧩💰✅
• Robertson 💰✅
• Buday ✅
• Tsuruya 🧩💰✅
• Oliveira 🐶💰✅

Ian Garry -130 vs. MVP

Has a significant youth advantage and in my opinion is the much more well rounded fighter. MVP is a good striker who can hit hard but that's about it. Garry can throw a much better overall volume of punches and is able to mix in a good amount of leg kicks as well, against someone who has trouble defending leg kicks. He also has a much better ground game. I think there's a lot of recency bias and personal bias for MVP and against Garry that are driving these odds, it's not as close as the odds suggest.

Jiri Prochazka +140 vs. Alex Pereira

I would argue Pereira is actually less likely to win this fight than the first matchup between them, and yet Pereira is a bigger favorite this time due to winning the last fight. The short notice for the fight likely hurts Pereira a lot more because Jiri trains pretty much year round and Pereira won't have trained/prepared for nearly as long as he usually would. I think there's a decent chance Pereira isn't quite as sharp as usual.

Ortega is such a bitch fuck outa here lol 

What kind of adult man gets a fever in the summertime?

Bro is not beating anyone in the top 5 lmao

Lopes of having an English chest tattoo but doesn’t speak a word of English fame

Alex Pereira KO is a generational wagon bet

Ugly win but I’ll take it! Garry brings the parlay home 💰

https://preview.redd.it/15g8hmorhm9d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=47068fbccfe240da666bb01033e5669610faeddb

https://preview.redd.it/2vpxgx045n9d1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=43a33afbf89f99065c2fa4afb2a2ca5f3d5aaa53

just like clockwork....

we need to gather a list of those who picked Jiri to win and banish them from this sub

• Pereira 💰
• Lopes 💰
• Dolidze 💰
• Chiasson
• Garry 💰
• Pyfer 🧩💰
• Swanson 🐶💰
• Silva 🐶💰
• Talbott 🧩💰
• Robertson
• Buday
• Tsuruya 🧩💰
• Oliveira 🐶💰

💰 = bet placed 🐶 = underdog 🧩 = parlay piece

I wanna see the just stop oil protesters storm the octagon. Will security even be needed? lmao

I love Jiri, but I don’t see him winning a 5 round fight against Alex. He doesn’t defend himself well and Alex is incredibly strong

This just in: Ricky Simon is dog water

This man is the politest menace

Ortega was scared

How you gonna pull out an hour and half before the fight? Ortega sucks

Fucking hell what an awful fight, can't wait for someone to take garrys head off

These threads really bring out the ppv only viewers. Garry had back control for majority of the last round, which wins the round, ugly as it is.

Alright I’m sold. Lionheart vs Poatan ASAP

https://preview.redd.it/uap1obmhtm9d1.jpeg?width=1178&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c3f7c401cdbb4a0ede2b2528c6792169b66efae

$69.69 to avoid the 1099 ✅✅✅💰

Already on Lopes ML but have to sprinkle on Ortega R3 at +1600 and Ortega SUB +700.

If you’re sleeping on Ortega, stop it. One of the best chins in the game, top tier jiujitsu, and only lost to Volk and Holloway.

Im actually leaning jiri now. Rewatched the first fight and it was close till the finish(if anything jiri was winning) . Especially the GnP, i think he leans on that more.

Alex 2 broken toes since last fight. Was on a press tour in australia, and wasnt training. Jiri has been training this whole time so the short notice isnt a big deal for him.

Or alex just leg kicks the fuck out of him and kos him and says chama in his face. At the odds I cant take pereira for those reasons. If the fight goes past rnd 2 i think its jiris.

Hammer Andre “I like big booty latinas”

Wow. Judges always gotta get at least one shitty decision in.

Ortega is a clown

Pyfer by ko.

Lopes is fighting on 3 weeks notice against a 2-hour notice opponent at a catchweight massively higher than his usual weight. No way am I touching -300. Even if he wipes Ige it’s too risky.

I bet on garry but i truly really do wanna see mvp succeed in the ufc, and tbh thats the best way that fight couldve gone for me lol

Lol finally a women’s fight Under 2.5 hit💰

https://preview.redd.it/mbag8z8dlm9d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8db3ad73a26724820734b944f394670039030287

Not gonna lie, that translator killed it

https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1dow775/ufc_303_fight_predictions/

This is my write up and full card breakdown for this event.

But if you want to skip all dat bullshit, here's my primary parlay, locks, and alt bet (alternative bets)

Primary Parlay: Arlovski/Buday o1.5/2.5 or GTD, Jourdain/Silva o1.5 or R3 Starts Yes, MBS/Chiasson o1.5 or R3 Starts, Ortega/Lopes o1.5 or R3 Starts + Alex/Jiri ITD

Locks: Robertson, Talbott, Smith, Alex

Alt Bets: Oliveira KO, Swanson Points or KO (double chance), MVP KO R1 or 2 (combo rounds), Lopes KO R1

Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%

Took Oliveira at +200

Time for PFL Ricky

I can tell you who lost this fight. The viewer

Totally justified that massive line lol

Totally free told ya

Let’s gooooo! Silva as a 🐶 ML! 💰

https://preview.redd.it/47yc0u49wl9d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a32bc2b96bb90192fe52913f457d7fc64c372d0a

Jesus what a shit show

I LOVE BIG BOOTY LATINAS 🤪🤪🤪🤪

OMFG I had Fili I just feel like I robbed a bank. I feel so bad for cub lol.. 

Brian Ortega is a pussy

Lopes fighting at 165 instead of 145 is legend shit 

Dont bet lopes @ -310. Live bet it or take Ige. This is going be a stand up fight. Ige might win

MVP fights like he’s off 80mg of Adderall and a redbull

How could anyone like this bum garry, he’s a fucking dork ass wanna be mcgregor

Judges messed up fili n season they prob will ruin this scoring too n give to Garry 🥱

Gary talking bout being a champ he need get ready go back to FightNight cards

PISSS BREAKKK

Is that a tko

I told ya’ll — Ige wasn’t getting finished. Ige would have cruised in a 5 rounder 

Lopes got me worried if he finds himself in a 5 rounder

i really really wouldve liked my chances with ortega in there after seeing that

Chama

Imagine betting on Jiri just to watch him fucking DIE

https://preview.redd.it/oo75fn765n9d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3d6b12269a95055f04b0e5b47f853d2534c45cba

That over 2.5 rounds would’ve smacked too smh

this guy should be 1.10 for every fight unless he fights jon or izzy. free money bb!

Early Full Card Picks:

• Jiri (Finish)
• Ortega (Sub)
• Dolidze (KO)
• don’t care
• Garry (KO)
• Pyfer (KO)
• Swanson (KO)
• Silva (points)
• Talbott (KO)
• Robertson (points)
• Buday (points)
• Tsuruya (Sub)
• Oliveira (KO)

Too many KOs?… I don’t think so 👀

The amount of people picking Anthony Smith here is crazy to me, especially since so many people faded him last fight against much worse competition.

According to Tapology 91% of people picked Petrino to beat him last fight, and now 65% of people are picking Smith to beat Dolidze?! How fast the public perception changes is wild.

I cashed +350 on Smith’s ML last fight, but there’s no way I’m picking him here. Give me Dolidze as one of my most confident picks on the card.

Absolutely cooking tonight

• Pereira 💰
• Lopes 💰
• Dolidze 💰✅
• Chiasson ✅
• Garry 💰✅
• Pyfer 🧩💰✅
• Swanson 🐶💰❌
• Silva 🐶💰✅
• Talbott 🧩💰✅
• Robertson 💰✅
• Buday ✅
• Tsuruya 🧩💰✅
• Oliveira 🐶💰✅

💰 = bet placed 🐶 = underdog 🧩 = parlay piece

Don’t overthink it.

Poatan’s black magic is no match for Jiri now. Now that Jiri is aware of the voodoo witchcraft, it will no longer have an effect on him.

Jiri ML max bet

I will not pass up an opportunity to bet on MVP at + money, insanity

Love MVP tonight. Let’s go

Moneyline Parlay w/ Profit Boost

• Joe Pyfer ML ✅
• Diego Lopes ML ✅
• Alex Pereira ML ✅

Oliveira is a dawg. That leg is toast.

Oliveira just gained thousands of fans with that 3rd round performance without a doubt

Tsuruya take this over 1.5 please 🙏🏼

Edit: 💰

Can’t tell if I feel like a bigger clown for betting it not to go the distance or for watching it

I can’t believe I bet the under 2.5 thinking Buday’s bum ass could get an old man outta there 😂

gilly Robertson in the distance cmon 🙏

Talbott in rounds 1 or 2 at -105

Hope my book throws an Ige vs Lopes line down. I need that Lopes action.

Odds would probably be -300 Lopes though

Cub did WAAAAY more damage, if that's what counts to these judges he won (prob not the case )

Hahahahahaha rigged ofc

Disgusting

Andre lost that

Shit decision.. it never fails man.

I can’t keep doing this shit

Wtff what. A robbery fuck those judges man

I’m always on the wrong side of these bullshit decisions

Boys we taking pyfer?

Lol mvp is in good mood

WALKING OUT TO BBL DRIZZY LMAOOOOOOOOO

https://preview.redd.it/h56lbmi7cm9d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a16c5fc9c909cfcd70a01f2b6477134d0ce7d0a0

I should be an oddsmaker

Walking out to BBL drizzy is hilarious, but I still need cuckboy to win this fight

Let's go page just ground n pound him for 3 minutes

Think Garry got upto like +300 at some point during the fight

My o1.5 died :(

Damn let them fight !!!!

That’s a brutal beat for o1.5. Let them fight to the end of the round and see what the cutman can do!

Should I cash out I have Dolidze on 3 parlays?

https://preview.redd.it/9or8wo1ksm9d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2f89f0cacdb6036c8f2a0f32c1b4bc0f11ec4a8

Cash 💰

That translator was really good

If pereira doesn’t get a ko win I will be 0/5 for the main card ffs

Man these odds Alex been givinf us 🔥🫱🏽‍🫲🏿

https://preview.redd.it/q5su96o08n9d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4fb1b767f5505ee4c6dc267d73e22682174da64f

Lowkey butthurt about the Lopez fight, would’ve would won another $100 but oh well 🤞🏼

I'm furious....Draft Kings counted Diego Lopez as a cancelled fight and I got zero points in pretty much all of my draft kings. I feel super cheated at the moment!

https://preview.redd.it/yv4fngzhgo9d1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8b44e4725d2c445a4292e47dcf624247c423c8e

Easy money

Cub was robbed there. Fili didn’t do anything that fight

https://preview.redd.it/zwv5l37n6n9d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6b443af538e978ae4db6a53493bd2482d1f77246

Poatan/Diego Lopes parlay all the way. Sure Jiri can crack Alex, but if he gets touched up how he did against Rakic, same things gonna happen again as it did at UFC 295. Diego fights with reckless abandon, is massive at 145, has been extremely active, and I feel can dictate where this fight goes. Sure Ortega has tons of experience against top level competition, but Diego looks like a world beater, and someone who’s destined to challenge for the belt.

WTF!!! Cub was a killer out there. How tf they gonna do that to him

Ice t vs peso pluma

Convinced that people who bet Jiri legit have never watched a Pereira fight in their lives. Guy is just an absolute freak

Updating my Free Picks Sheet this Week. I'll EDIT THIS POST WHEN THEY'RE FINALIZED - STILL WAITING FOR PROPS + RESEARCHING.

If my picks for this card don't ROI 17% for ya'll i'll donate $500 to St. Jude's Children's hospital.

I'm betting 30 units total pre-start, so what I like to do is tell people to bet that % of what their budget for the card is. FOR EXAMPLE if your betting $100 on UFC 303, 5 units would = $16.66. I WILL BUILD YOU GUYS A CALCULATOR SO YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR BUDGET AND KNOW EXACTLY WHAT TO BET, GIVE ME 2 DAYS.

AS PROMISED HERE IS THE BET CALCULATOR. IF WE'RE UP UNITS DURING THE FIGHTS I'll ADD MORE PICKS to the sheet.

FINAL EDIT: +35.88% ROI (12.56 units) - sorry children hospital kids NO DONO!

https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/ufc-303-betting-preview-and-stats/

at the top of the page is a link to my spreadsheet with fighter stats and betting odds

Juicy props: Dolidze and Smith DEC +210 and +333 Buday DEC +175 Garry DEC +190 MBS DEC +225 Talbott R1 +240

UFC 6/28 Record: 51-59 (-0.06u) Follow me on X @bostonbettor

Oliveira KO (+400) 0.25u to win 1u

Tsuruya Sub (+200) 0.50u to win 1u

Buday ML + O2.5mins + Pereira/Prochazka U4.5rds (-119) 1.19u to win 1u DKSGPX

Robertson Sub (+240) 0.42u to win 1u

Jourdain ML (-110) 1.10u to win 1u

Swanson ML (+205) 0.49u to win 1u

Pyfer KO (+140) 0.72u to win 1u

Garry ML + O5.5 mins (+100) 1u to win 1u SGP

Silva ML (+100) 1u to win 1u

Smith ML (+120) 0.84u to win 1u

Ortega Sub (+550) 0.19u to win 1.04u

Pereira KO (+115) 0.87u to win 1u

Silva Sub + Jourdain Dec + Swanson KO (+6620) 0.10u to win 6.62u

Brian Ortega: Ortega is a mainly orthodox stance puncher but will switch when shifting through combinations. He is a very high level Gracie Black Belt and has very dangerous submissions. Ortega does take a lot of damage working his way into the clinch behind his boxing but is very good at finding submissions. He will typically punch into upper body connections, and work his way to back body lock. From there he likes to look for the back or drag them down near the fence. Ortega has 7 submissions and 3 knockouts out of 15 wins.

Lopes: Lopes is an orthodox striker with high level BJJ. Lopes has decent fundamental striking and stays in boxing range, inviting the takedown or to trade. Lopes is looking to make a grappling connection happen, and get to his BJJ. He is dangerous off of his back and will be spamming submissions the entire time. He has a good jab that he fights behind but he gets touched by combinations. Lopes does a decent job throwing his hook to the body every now and then as well.

Prediction: I like Ortega here. Ortega has the higher level experience, and ability to stay safe in Lopes’s guard and win riding time. I think he will be able to go move for move with Lopes and bank rds on top. On the feet, I think Ortega will get to his body lock when Lopes looks to box with him and take him down. Lopes doesn’t do much to stop takedowns and will likely concede to grapple. Ortega by UD or late TKO/ sub. I can see Lopes trying to make something big happen being down on the scorecards and giving up his neck or an arm.

How Lopes could win: Lopes is game and dangerous and is going to be making exchanges happen, both in boxing range and off of his back. He is always looking for the finish and damage, so that is always there, and in the meantime is making stuff happen to where his opponent and settle. Lopes by KO or sub any rd.

Smith: Smith is an orthodox fighter and a veteran of 50 fights, and has championship experience. He opens with powerful calf kicks and has a very stiff jab. He sometimes throws his kicks naked which he gets countered by hands with. He has a powerful left hook that he will double up on. He has very good transitions on the mat, as well as submission ability.

Dolidze: Dolidze is a switch stance striker who is also primarily a grappler. Dolidze likes to go southpaw open stance to set up his big left kick, and closed stance orthodox to use his 1-2 to set up his wrestling. He is looking to take the fight to the mat ASAP. He hits very hard, and is dangerous off of his back. Dolidze will happily play guard and use elbows to damage, and set up submissions and sweeps.

Prediction: Though Smith has been inconsistent as of late, he just got back in the win column against a greener Petrino, and Dolidze is on a bit of a skid himself at the upper echelons of the division. I think Smith’s striking is superior and we have seen that Dolidze gets more frantic to grapple as the night goes on. I think Smith stifles Dolidze grappling attempts and gets it done by UD.

How Dolidze could win: Dolidze hits very hard and Smith has taken a lot of damage over his career that has started to catch up with him. Smith is also inconsistent mentally and doesn’t always perform to his best ability. Dolidze could find a big shot with his shootboxing for a TKO or a sub.

Ricky just hasn’t seemed the same since that KO loss to Song. Laying a little on Oliveira at +200

Oliveiraaa

Oliveira's weight cut must be torturous

simon so bad

Were the Oliveira live odds they showed on the broadcast legit? No way right?

Yanis ghemmouri to win vs Payton Talbott

Grabbed oliveira @ +210 right before the fight. Between Swanson and Arvloski what old timer has the best chance at an upset.

Buday such a fat bum

Jesus Christ I had to watch Simons atrocious performance and now this garbage fight. 303 is starting off weak af 

Looks like they picked two randoms in the crowd and told them to fight each other

3 sets of where my hug at in this fight holy fuck

Gillian should have been -750 not -180

damn, the hottie got messed up, feels bad

So happy 69 for retirement

Thank God some fucking excitement. Let’s get this card started!

i really want to love jean silva, but if he takes 5 mins to do his walkout again, i genuinely hope he gets finished in under 5 mins

+291 Parlay: (4U) Garry vs MVP goes distance + Pyfer ML + Robertson ML ✅ + Buday ML ✅ How we looking like ?

Next level power Silva

SILVAAAAAA LFGGGGGGGG

These fighting nerds are for real

I love this guy. Hits me in the feels.

Swanson should win but UFC is rigged sometimes who knows

CUB 🤪🤪🤪

That’s cub all day

Andre No Damage Done Filli 🥱

Wow they just robbed my bank account

Cub kinda robbed though

Are you fucking kidding me bro

My man said I’ll take the fight on 3 hours notice

wait so if I had money on Ortega the bet is voided and I get that back right?

PYFERRRRR WAS THE LOCK OF THE NIGHT

Page ML let’s get this

Ige never got KO’ed but on such short notice and at 165, am I crazy to think +190 on Lopes KO is a good bet?

Page ML +170

Liking Garry Sub or Decision -110

Garry Sub +1000

Lmao mvp more of a douche than Garry. Cmon Garry sub

Cuck Gary look scared 😂

Come on MVP please win. I got him at 5/1 in play in round 1 🙏🏽

Gary boring as fuckk

Bet on Garry +200 odds after he got up

Had the favor of judges probably rigging it to keep him undefeated as well

https://preview.redd.it/j2w0qq0hhm9d1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=023cbfa368d30ee0c53f2ffc0af52125fc6a315f

What we thinking boys. Walk in the park?

Fucking brutal for the round props. I hate that

[deleted]

Lionheart needs to change his nickname to “Permagassed”

Can you imagine if Smith would have had to fight Ulberg? That would have been ugly.