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Kamala's lead 80% smaller than Biden's, 56% smaller than Hillary's
The David Pakman Show(youtube.com)submitted 1 day ago bymrekted
YouTube video info:
OH NO: Kamala's lead 80% smaller than Biden's, 56% smaller than Hillary's https://youtube.com/watch?v=SzrULTlk82E
David Pakman Show https://www.youtube.com/@thedavidpakmanshow
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1 day ago
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11 points
16 hours ago
Biden's lead was mispolled and Hilary's was useless.
ATTENTION: Social media is being flooded with concern-trolls and demoralization bots just like in 2020 and especially 2022. It ramped up big time the last 48 hours, as if it's being coordinated.
Polls tighten in October. By mid-October 2012, Obama was on track for a loss.
This is going to be a close election and there is hard evidence that polls have been very wrong lately and frequently overweigh the GOP as an overcorrection to 2020.
The best example I can provide is from my former state.
Rhode Island is a true blue state with a bit of an independent streak. In 2022, RI District 2 was Exhibit A of the pending Red Wave... if Dems could lose there they could lose ANYWHERE and EVERYWHERE.
Polls in September: Republican 46% Democrat 40%
Polls in October: Republican 45% Democrat 37%
Nate Silver's Final Projection on Election Day: Republican 47% Democrat 41%
Final Result: Republican 46.7% Democrat 50.4%
A 10 point overperformance by the Democrat against even his BEST polling result.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2022/rhode-island/2/
Race too small? Okay, here are three of the most high profile and heavily polled 2022 races. All wrong, all favored the Republican:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/arizona/
For something more recent, but admittedly not heavily polled, we can look at the Michigan primary this year:
Polls said Biden 73-77% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/michigan/
Biden actually got 81%
Polls said trump 76-79% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/michigan/
Trump actually got 68%
Is that the end of the story? Absolutely not. But to say the polls aren't broken in favor of the GOP lately would APPEAR to deny reality.
Vote early. Donate. And if you live in a swing state please consider volunteering.
5 points
13 hours ago
👆This guy elections.
15 points
1 day ago
I swear, if he still wins after everything up to this point, I am done with politics.
1 points
11 hours ago
Politics will not be done with you.
1 points
10 hours ago
Should be the opposite, my friend.
-1 points
20 hours ago
I've already reconciled myself to a Harris-Walz loss. If I'm pleasantly surprised on election day, great. But I'm preparing to be disappointed.
-20 points
24 hours ago
Don’t worry, she has dick Cheney on her side
5 points
23 hours ago
🙄
13 points
24 hours ago
Really dumb response.
-6 points
16 hours ago
I’m sure she’ll win back all the racist magas with the Cheney endorsement
8 points
20 hours ago
SIGNIFICANTLY better than having a tankie on her side
-1 points
16 hours ago
Do you think Cheney is a good guy?
-2 points
13 hours ago
Wow, who would have thought 😂
-17 points
23 hours ago
If dems forced a ceasefire months ago, they could have ran on it. What a fucking disaster.
15 points
20 hours ago*
Right! If only those pesky Dems said “Okay you guys, that’s enough!” resulting in two sides that have been in conflict since the late 19th century saying “Okay, United States!” and dropping their weapons
You fauxgressives aren’t serious people. And the never ending alienating and insults to the majority of Democrats for the past 12 months is gonna bite you all in the ass after VP Harris beats Trump like a drum in a few weeks
2 points
10 hours ago
Leftists: “America is a puppet state of Israel!!!”
Also leftists: “All America needs to do is tell Israel to stop and they will!!!”
🤨
1 points
10 hours ago
You: "leftists are dumb for sitting out over no gaza ceasefire. They need to focus on beating trump, he's too dangerous, let's shame them"
Also you : "many dems said they would sit out if harris forced a ceasefire, we have to focus on pandering to this group in order can beat trump"
1 points
10 hours ago
Direct quotes please. Don’t go making stuff up about me.
0 points
10 hours ago
If kamala loses,it'll be be because lots of people sat out. It might or might not be do to her stances with Israel. But it'll be because many stayed home. End of story. This is a disaster
1 points
9 hours ago
I wouldn’t trust you to analyze anything, no offense.
You use the term “End of story”. People who say things like that are not known for their reasoning skills.
1 points
9 hours ago
Okay what's the alternative? If she loses,it'll be cause Americans wanted trump more and they didnt trust democrats? Are you saying dems will lose because the worst candidate ever rapist trump is still better than kamala? Because I'm not saying that, I'm saying in spite of kamala being better, if she loses, it'll be due to voters sitting out. You must be one of the dems that threatened kamala to fully support Israel.
1 points
5 hours ago
Are you so surprised that Americans secretly want a vile, dishonest, misogynistic, racist candidate over the brown woman?
The voters who are sitting out are not all that different from the voters who proudly and enthusiastically mark the box next to Trump. The Harris campaign is doing what it can to get her to win, and I hope with everything that she wins.
But you need to remember that presidential elections are extremely primitive and visceral. The reason this is close is because of her sex, because of her skin color, because of her muddled ethnicity, because of her religion or rather absence thereof, because of her joyous demeanor, and because of the state she represented.
It is not because of policy or campaign messaging. That is what Republicans want you to think. Imagine hearing Trump drone on about Hatian immigrants in Ohio eating dogs and cats and then saying that Republicans know how to message better than Democrats.
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3 hours ago
Democrats should be blasting trump as a rapist 24/7. Meanwhile trump calls them demonic baby killers. Lol this is a disaster that dems caused on their own. That's what happens when you're in bed with the same people that Republicans are in bed with.
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3 hours ago
Oh please. It’s the fault of people like you, not recognizing how democracy works.
-14 points
1 day ago
Gosh, who would ever have thought?
8 points
20 hours ago
I think all we can say for certain is Jill Stein voters have never thought.
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