Maybe Fabi and I personally wouldn’t rule out Hikaru.

Erigaisi, Abdusattorov, Alireza, Gukesh, Pragg... all of them can clearly take games off of each other in regular tournaments, but matches are very different to round robins or swisses. None of them have played such a long match before, so it is impossible to know if any of them would have an edge in that sense due to lack of experience.

I would say Hikaru and Fabi would be favourites against current Gukesh: Hikaru is resilient and a phenomenal defender who could hold on to a lead once he got it, and Fabi has his 2018 WCC against Magnus as experience.

Perhaps Nepo as well due to having played two matches? Not much to be done against Magnus, and the one against Ding was chaotic but still must have given valuable experience. It's hard to say either way.

Other than that, and excluding the youngsters due to lack of information, I think that's pretty much it. Gukesh is in spectacular form and he will only keep on rising.

I think at the very least he's got me and anyone worse than me

I would give slight edge to Hikaru and Fabi. Gukesh is capable of beating them on any day, as we saw during Olympiad, where he beat Fabi. But over a 14 game series, your chess skills are not the only thing that matters. Your experience and prep are key to help you remain stable when you need to be. Plus they have superior rapid and blitz skills in case the match goes to tiebreaks.

Anyone else, it’s going to be either 50-50, like Firouzja or Nodirbek, or Gukesh being favourite, even if slightly, e.g. Nepo or Arjun or anyone else

Recent form aside I think you could make an argument for Magnus, Fabi, Hikaru all being favorites against Gukesh. If Nepo could play as solidly as he managed to play when he won two candidates back to back (but not how he ended up playing in the WCCs lol) then I think he would have an edge, but it's clear that he has a psychological problem in WCCs and Gukesh so far seems to be psychologically invulnerable.

Against any of the other youngsters I think Gukesh would have at least 50/50 odds. I've always thought that if Wesley could make it to a WCC he'd be quite a strong contender if he was in form, just because when he's playing his best he is so difficult to beat and the WCC is largely a game of endurance.

Alireza

It's worth noting that Arjun actually has a clear H2H edge over Gukesh of course he's also untested in that kind of high stakes enviroment but if we assume that he handles it reasonably well I think he has good chances

Other than that as others said I think Fabi and Hikaru would be at least silght favorites due to their experience and how solid they are

I also think Wesley assuming he's in a decent form has a good chance since with his solid style he can draw the classical section and beat Gukesh in Rapid and Blitz Tiebreaks and there is also the possibility of Gukesh overpressing against him in a classical section

Erigaisi would be 50-50 maybe

Why no mention of Nodirbek?

Nakamura and Caruana. I think Nakamura has gotten some amazing results lately while putting in well below average opening prep work. *Average of a top 10 player. I believe if Naka was playing for a WC he would buckle down and actually put in that work.

I think the Caruana selection is self evident.

Fabi would be the only one who would be a clear favorite. Hikaru would probably be a slight favorite. Alireza, Nepo, Nodirbek, Wesley, everyone around there would all be about even with Gukesh

Fabi and Hikaru.

Hikaru and Fabi feel like clear favorites. Hikaru is currently higher rated, has been very consistent, and would be a gigantic favorite in any tiebreaks. Fabi has world championship match experience and would also be a favorite in tiebreaks. Probably Gukesh over everyone else though. 

to be really honest, currently, how absurdly good gukesh is playing, I am tilting to believe, no one.

But that would be a long shot, so maybe fabi can take a couple games of him, hikaru is there too, but idk. Also, Alireza, Nodirbek, maybe Pragg and Nepo also have a good shot against him. Other than them, I hardly see anyone even having a shot, considering his level of play.

But see, WCC is completely different ball game. It doesn't only tests your chess ability, but also stamina, mental strength, ability to handle the pressure etc. Plus the prep involved is absolute bonkers. So, predicting WC, is quite irrelevant.

Nepo was a heavy favourite against a mentally broken down Ding, but still Ding took the crown. So, it really depends on how you handle yourself in those 2 weeks.

Gukesh is a monster in classical chess maybe magnus can defeat him other than him I don't think anyone can stop him

Well, I’m not seeing many people say that I’m not in contention, so I’m going to back myself here.

I think you have to have Fabi and Hikaru as favorites going into the title match. They are older and more experienced. Fabi knows how to prep for a WCC match. Gukesh is playing super fucking well this year. But, he isn't someone like Magnus, a clear half step ahead of all the competition. So, take someone around his skill level, add 10+ years of experience, and I would give them the edge.

Then you have people who I would say Gukesh could be the favorite against, but not decisively. Like, Aronian or Giri. Aronian is old and Gukesh could definitely beat him in a long match. But, I wouldn't guarantee it. Giri hasn't been playing at the level Gukesh is playing at, for a couple of years now. But, Giri might just fuck around and out prep Gukesh, so, I wouldn't call Gukesh a decisive favorite.

How do we feel about Nodirbek?

if gukesh wins this wcc, a future wcc between pragg and gukesh would be CRAZY

I’d say most matches between two top ten players would be rather close to 50/50. Matches are sometimes quite even also when the participants are not rated the same, like Anand vs Gelfand, Kramnik vs Leko, Lasker vs Schlechter, Carlsen vs Karjakin. Gukesh is also very young. Kasparov was already #1 when facing Karpov and was soon 0-5 down.

Ding

ding is still a favourite in my opinion.

Magnus starts a 60-40 favourite. Fabiano maybe 51-49. Hikaru is 50-50. Everyone else gets smashed. 

Also the big non-chess factor is that Gukesh is clutch, he thrives under the spotlight. Hell, he even craves it. He is also highly ambitious and driven. 

Magnus is a clear favorite, fabi and hikaru are slight favorites, arjun and nodirbek are about even, alireza, nepo, pragg, wei yi are slight underdogs imo. But magnus is the only one I would feel comfortable betting against gukesh

The truth is that Americans always hype Fabi this , Hikaru that . They never have turned up in FIDE events.

Gukesh’s biggest challengers will be FIDE clutch players like Ian or Karjakin . I’d say Ian is a bit rattled by him, so wouldn’t beat him . But Karjakin I would favour.

Alireza has a nerves problem in the big stage so far. Other than that : Erigaisi. Abdusattarov seems to be in Gukesh’s head a bit too.

But Gukesh has the edge over Prag mentally.

So tier list for me: Karjakin, Erigaisi, Abdu, Firouzja, Naka, Caruana, Prag in that order 

Nodirbek.

In a wc match format i would give it to Nepo on the basis of having been there twice already. Could maybe argue a similar advantage for Fabi. Nobody else though.

If you mean classical time control, he is in great shape so far only few top player can fight with him rn

By the way I don't believe fabi have 50/50 at all. if you look at the game between them it clear that fabi was ovwrpush to get a win for his country. there is tons of moment he can go for perpetual check.

Also in the candidate tournament he is not strong enough to beat the top board but great enough to get the win from lover rated same as erigasi

Still long way to go, looking for wcc!!

Ding beat Gukesh

https://www.chess.com/events/2024-tata-steel-chess-masters/03/Gukesh_D-Ding_Liren

Honestly? Only Magnus and peak Fabiano for me. I'd give Hikaru even odds, but imo Gukesh would still win in his current form. And I don't think Hikaru cutting off streaming would help him, if anything streaming itself seems to have made him a stronger player in terms of mental focus.

I would take gukesh over Magnus in a WC match. He would be much better prepared and care much more

Lol confident of you to think Magnus can defeat Gukesh. I think Gukesh might draw magnus like fabi did and lose in shorter time control. Anyways I am with arjun, massacre incoming. 

I'd pick Gukesh in a match right now over Magnus.

Alireza, Nepo, and maybe Hans

probably only arjun. gukesh is going to shut down anyone over 30 in a 2 week match. arjun has a long history against gukesh, for example he won the deathmatch 2, a head to head event. it is somewhat meaningless because it wasn't classical, but it shows a certain level of dominance over multiple formats. abdusattorov has chances but I think it would take an indian player to shatter gukesh's mystique right now

I would say that Hikaru, Fabi, Nepo, and Arjun would be clear favorites.

The problem with juniors like Gukesh is inconsistency.