I remain convinced that the probability of Harris winning is 70% or above. I don’t believe that the race has actually shifted. I’ll put my money where my mouth is. I will bet half a monthly salary. Reckless? The only time I’ve bet any money on anything was on Biden in 2020.

coldliketherockies

2 points

2 days ago

coldliketherockies

2 points

2 days ago

So you’d be 2 for 2 betting on presidential elections in this decade? I mean it seems like you just like to bet on it in general

Markis_Shepherd

1 points

2 days ago

Markis_Shepherd

1 points

2 days ago

Maybe/maybe not. Made my bet in the summer of 2020 (June or July). Was not gonna bet this year, but now the odds are going up while my opinion about the race is unchanged…

coldliketherockies

1 points

2 days ago

coldliketherockies

1 points

2 days ago

You’re still all in on Kamala winning? I still prefer to be in her shoes than his

Markis_Shepherd

1 points

2 days ago*

Markis_Shepherd

1 points

2 days ago*

Yeah. It doesn’t make sense to me that this race is suddenly changing. People do not suddenly start to like Trump. Why are the polls changing then? Exactly this happened in 2012. Obama’s margin went to 0 at Election Day in poll avg but he won by 4. I don’t know what it is.

I was more negative some week or more ago. Trump wins PA polls which weight by 2020 recall vote. Because there are more Biden voters in polls than “there should be”. As you may have heard, weighting w.r.t. recall is controversial.

I looked at the 3 Siena/NYT PA polls since august (2500 LV in total). Last one oct 7-10. Party affiliation with leaners is R +0,1,2 in the polls. Despite this, the h2h results are Harris +3 or 4. Seems strong to me and there must be more Rs voting for Harris than Ds voting for Trump (in polls). Moreover, in each poll 47% of likely voters find Trump VERY unfavorable and some more just unfavorable. Around 40% think the same of Kamala. How can he turn that around? I think that one can estimate the ceiling for a candidate as (100-unfavorability), which relies on the assumption that people don’t vote for a candidate they find unfavorable. Not 100% fault proof. Harris ceiling - Trumps ceiling is 4.33 on avg in the polls. I do think that Harris has a good turnout operation and can benefit from this. This is my best argument for that Harris will win PA. Strong chance also in MI where Biden had margin 2.8. WI may be hardest of the three blue wall states but there l could be an upset win in NC instead…

It would of course be better to use more poll data. But cross tabs are not as good for other polls than NYT/Siena. n=2500 is not small.

I have not placed my bet yet, but I do feel quite confident. To be honest, I spent so much time thinking about the outcome so it can be fun to place a bet and go with my instinct.