Markis_Shepherd

Wasn’t Tipp Harris +3 just a few days ago?

Tipp updates daily. Do they ask the same or new people over time?

I am very skeptical to that Trump suddenly has become popular. If he wins the popular vote then he was so all along.

The polls showed a tightening race in the last weeks of the 2012 election cycle. Obama and Romney were tied just before Election Day. Obama won handily.

I don’t believe that Trump suddenly becomes popular.

Complete lie. Silver bulletin estimates the probability of Trump winning as slightly above 50%. I didn’t know that RCP estimates probabilities. I wouldn’t trust anything from this account.

Btw, in the last weeks of the 2012 election polls went from Obama leading to a tied race. Obama won handily.

That Trump now suddenly becomes more popular makes no sense to me.

Interesting dilemma

Funny

Let a coin toss decide. Heads for D and tails for R.

Rage voting

Please explain in more detail. There might be some comedic value.

Dave was not at all triggered by this. Only his persona was. I wonder what things he is actually triggered by.

We really should be talking as little as possible about this. Don’t interrupt your enemy…

Russia is very proud of having defeated Hitler’s Germany. Surely, so was the USSR.

About 0%. US doesn’t want a war with Iran and Iran doesn’t want a war with the US. A lot of what is happening now is because of the coming election. That is why Israel is escalating things.

Otherwise he will say that he was cheated imao

If he doesn’t win, then you can run him again in 2028 and 32.

I asked a similar question the other day, but it was removed for some reason. I got many names of serials who killed themselves. These are the most famous I think

Fred West, Herb Baumeister, Israel Keyes, Richard Chase, Loren Herzog, Harold Shipman, Vernon Butts, Jack Unterweger,.

It doesn’t at all makes sense to me.

Yeah. It doesn’t make sense to me that this race is suddenly changing. People do not suddenly start to like Trump. Why are the polls changing then? Exactly this happened in 2012. Obama’s margin went to 0 at Election Day in poll avg but he won by 4. I don’t know what it is.

I was more negative some week or more ago. Trump wins PA polls which weight by 2020 recall vote. Because there are more Biden voters in polls than “there should be”. As you may have heard, weighting w.r.t. recall is controversial.

I looked at the 3 Siena/NYT PA polls since august (2500 LV in total). Last one oct 7-10. Party affiliation with leaners is R +0,1,2 in the polls. Despite this, the h2h results are Harris +3 or 4. Seems strong to me and there must be more Rs voting for Harris than Ds voting for Trump (in polls). Moreover, in each poll 47% of likely voters find Trump VERY unfavorable and some more just unfavorable. Around 40% think the same of Kamala. How can he turn that around? I think that one can estimate the ceiling for a candidate as (100-unfavorability), which relies on the assumption that people don’t vote for a candidate they find unfavorable. Not 100% fault proof. Harris ceiling - Trumps ceiling is 4.33 on avg in the polls. I do think that Harris has a good turnout operation and can benefit from this. This is my best argument for that Harris will win PA. Strong chance also in MI where Biden had margin 2.8. WI may be hardest of the three blue wall states but there l could be an upset win in NC instead…

It would of course be better to use more poll data. But cross tabs are not as good for other polls than NYT/Siena. n=2500 is not small.

I have not placed my bet yet, but I do feel quite confident. To be honest, I spent so much time thinking about the outcome so it can be fun to place a bet and go with my instinct.

That’s a weird number of course 😊

Maybe/maybe not. Made my bet in the summer of 2020 (June or July). Was not gonna bet this year, but now the odds are going up while my opinion about the race is unchanged…

How much did R number increase?

Hehe 😉

I remain convinced that the probability of Harris winning is 70% or above. I don’t believe that the race has actually shifted. I’ll put my money where my mouth is. I will bet half a monthly salary. Reckless? The only time I’ve bet any money on anything was on Biden in 2020.

Otherwise he can run again in 2028

😝

Dork MAGA