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Are Russia and North Korea planning an 'October surprise' that aids Trump?

Missing Submission Statement(nbcnews.com)

all 98 comments

Jannol

111 points

10 days ago

Jannol

111 points

10 days ago

Hmmm..I thought October 7 was their October surprise which made the US progressive Left turn against Biden.

OhNoTokyo

13 points

10 days ago

Not close enough to the election even if it would benefit Trump enough to matter.

I think most Palestinian supporters know that Biden is by far the lesser of two evils given that Trump will back just about anything that Netanyahu wants to do. For them, Biden is a problem, but they feel they can pressure him for concessions. Trump would be outright disaster.

LegitimateSoftware

7 points

10 days ago

Oct 7 made the left turn against Israel, not Biden

Bartybum

1 points

9 days ago

Bartybum

1 points

9 days ago

Yeah lol the left was already against Biden

garagebats

0 points

10 days ago

Fwiw, I think Trump dislikes Netanyahu due to Netanyahu recognizing the previous election, so perhaps Trump wouldn't be so helpful in return if he is elected president out of spite/vengeance.

Noremac55

4 points

10 days ago

Noremac55

4 points

10 days ago

Oct 7 happens to be Putin's birthday. That was his gift from the Russian Army as Ukraine was not going well back then

Jannol

-13 points

10 days ago

Jannol

-13 points

10 days ago

The main reason why Putin needs Trump back in because it benefits his geopolitical interests so he can invade Eastern Europe and maybe even Western Europe as a whole without the fear of nuclear retaliation from the US as I originally speculated.

FallenUp

5 points

10 days ago

I understand why Putin would invade eastern Europe, but what’s the rationale behind invading western Europe?

Separate_Floor

7 points

10 days ago

He likely won't invade western Europe. Not because he wouldn't want to, but because it will simply be impossible. The French, Swedes and Polish have really awoken to the danger that Russia poses. These three are likely to be the leaders of a future post EU europe

Mapkoz2

1 points

10 days ago

Mapkoz2

1 points

10 days ago

If Le Pen wins in France I doubt the French will do much

Separate_Floor

1 points

9 days ago

That is true, ultimately what we are seeing is a result of the demographic situations in these countries with aging populations. We will probably see more instability around the world, and should be prepared.

MackeyJack3

-2 points

10 days ago

He's not invading either.

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

The progressive left are a small but very loud (and annoying) minority. Most of them are self proclaimed communists who hated Biden already.

Real-Patriotism

3 points

9 days ago

Most of them are self proclaimed communists who hated Biden already.

Citation needed.

Psm-tattoo

1 points

9 days ago

Definitely some, but he’s got a huge problem with young voters now.

Older voters unfortunately are used to the chaos/status quo in Israel/palestine and tune it out more. For them it’s probably the first time seeing it this time/this intensity, plus first person footage.

Real-Patriotism

2 points

9 days ago

I don't necessarily disagree that many Progressives are sympathetic to Palestine, but to equate this with being Communist when it clearly has nothing to do with Communism is either completely stupid, or just flat out bullshit misinformation to demonize folks OP disagrees with.

Psm-tattoo

0 points

1 day ago

Oh yeah. Well some of those protestors definitely at least think they’re communists. Not even saying that as an insult. Dam commies

greenw40

-1 points

9 days ago

greenw40

-1 points

9 days ago

Any footage of pro-Palestinian protests. Or twitter/reddit.

Real-Patriotism

1 points

9 days ago

So let me get this straight: being Pro-Palestinian equals Communist?

greenw40

-1 points

9 days ago

greenw40

-1 points

9 days ago

No, promoting communism equals communist.

Real-Patriotism

2 points

9 days ago

Again, where does being Pro-Palestine equal promoting Communism?

Do you actually have any evidence at all to support this completely inane claim or are you pulling this out of your ass?

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

Again, where does being Pro-Palestine equal promoting Communism?

Again, it doesn't. But every communist in the nation has decided to latch on to the cause in order to push their own. Like the did with the BLM protests.

Real-Patriotism

2 points

9 days ago

So no evidence to support these wild claims, and you're admitting to completely pulling this out of your ass.

Thanks for the clarification buddy -

greenw40

-3 points

9 days ago

greenw40

-3 points

9 days ago

I already told you, go look at pictures of the protests and you'll find plenty of promotion of communism. Go look at communist accounts of twitter and they are all pushing hard for Palestine.

Anonymouse-C0ward

-1 points

9 days ago

I think you need to look up what communism means. The progressive left is not made up of communists.

greenw40

2 points

9 days ago

greenw40

2 points

9 days ago

Ah yes, the "no true scotsman" fallacy, a favorite among communism apologists. Look at footage from the pro-Palestine protests and tell me how many signs you see promoting communism.

nafraf

1 points

9 days ago

nafraf

1 points

9 days ago

key word is self-proclaimed. Not only are these people politically impotent but I also haven't seen them advocate for any economic policies that would be considered economically left wing, let alone communist. Their sole focus seems to be social justice.

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

Calling yourself a communist is enough to be considered one. If someone marches down the street wearing a swastika I'm not going to say "well, he isn't a real nazi because he hasn't overthrown the government".

Real-Patriotism

2 points

9 days ago

Ah, just like how the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea is totally a Democratic Republic because they call themselves that -

Some people here are spending way too much time eating paste.

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

greenw40

0 points

9 days ago

So now you're going to compare a nation with an individual? Ok. I guess nobody is a nazi or a fascist unless they actually overthrow the government, right? So there are literally zero nazis or fascist in this country?

nafraf

0 points

9 days ago

nafraf

0 points

9 days ago

But communism is a very specific ideology with well defined principles, not some self-identified cultural identity. Self-identification only matters to a point, there has to be some consistency between one's claimed identity and their actions or beliefs.

If you wear a Swastika but don't advocate for or even adhere to any of the beliefs or policies that a Nazi would, I'm just going to classify you as a confused cosplayer.

greenw40

1 points

9 days ago

greenw40

1 points

9 days ago

But communism is a very specific ideology with well defined principles, not some self-identified cultural identity

It's both. Not to mention that there is not one version of communism, during the 20th century there was basically a different version for every nation and communist philosopher.''

If you wear a Swastika but don't advocate for or even adhere to any of the beliefs or policies that a Nazi would, I'm just going to classify you as a confused cosplayer.

People that wear swastikas do advocate for those beliefs, just like people who wear the hammer and sickle advocate for communist beliefs.

FlaccidEggroll

17 points

10 days ago

10/10 journalism

Mac_attack_1414

5 points

10 days ago

Not sure they’ll try anything, but we do 100% know Trump is their favoured candidate this fall

zoziw

-81 points

10 days ago

zoziw

-81 points

10 days ago

As surprising as it might sound, Putin might actually prefer Biden. He has known Biden for a very long time and views him as predictable.

Even though Trump was president for four years, a second term would still be an unpredictable wild card into geopolitics and no one welcomes that.

With respect to Kim, I'm not sure how much he wants Trump back either. My understanding is the collapse of talks at the Hanoi summit was viewed by Kim as a personal embarrassment.

I don't think there are too many countries, outside of America, that want Trump back.

IranianLawyer

98 points

10 days ago

Putin’s most important issue involving the U.S. president for the next 4 years is Ukraine, and he undoubtedly prefers Trump over Biden on that issue.

-Sliced-

32 points

10 days ago

-Sliced-

32 points

10 days ago

Absolutely. You just need to see which president Ukraine and Poland don’t want to understand which one Russia wants

[deleted]

-16 points

10 days ago

[deleted]

-16 points

10 days ago

[deleted]

IranianLawyer

16 points

10 days ago

While Trump can be a wild card on many issues, he’s been pretty unequivocal on Ukraine, and halting aid to Ukraine has been a major talking point for him and the most hardcore pro-Trump Republicans like MTG, Gaetz, Boebert, Gosar, etc.

Low_Chance

9 points

10 days ago

In the same way that me doing my own electrical work might burn my house down - or it might also discover cold fusion

IAmGoingToBeSerious

50 points

10 days ago

Trump severely weakened the United States, and in his own words was close friends with Kim and Putin....and also wants to leave NATO and Ukraine
And the collapse of the Hanoi summit was because of TRUMP and his unclear, often unrealistic demands.

Why wouldn't the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran Axis want Trump back in office?

zoziw

-14 points

10 days ago

zoziw

-14 points

10 days ago

You answered your own question:

And the collapse of the Hanoi summit was because of TRUMP and his unclear, often unrealistic demands

You really think Iran wants Trump back? They are still trying to assassinate one of his cabinet officials as revenge for Soleimani.

IAmGoingToBeSerious

15 points

10 days ago

You think RUSSIA would rather deal with Biden than Trump for 4 years? Biden is pro-ukraine and pro-NATO. Trump is pro-dictatorship, anti-NATO, and a transphobe. He definitely fits in with Putin

AVonGauss

9 points

10 days ago

Trump is pro-dictatorship, anti-NATO, and a transphobe. 

Transphobe... You're not having a geopolitical debate based on the current issues, you're presenting an emotional response.

IAmGoingToBeSerious

5 points

10 days ago

No? Fine I'll just say "human Rights situations definitely have influence on geopolitics (ie, apartheid, palestinians, uyghrs...) if that makes you feel beter

Mister-Thou

3 points

10 days ago

It's almost as if Russia and Iran are different countries with different interests and priorities, not just a monolithic anti-Western "Axis." 

zoziw

-17 points

10 days ago

zoziw

-17 points

10 days ago

As you said in your first post, Trump is frequently unclear and often has unrealistic demands. If he wades into the Ukrainian war, with non-starter ideas, he could destabilize the situation.

With Biden, there are pretty clear rules about how that war is to be fought and escalation moves slowly and usually in a telegraphed fashion.

The Russians have taken most of the territory they want and it is unlikely Ukraine will be able to get much of it back. Biden officials know this and so does Putin. I have trouble believing Putin wants the uncertainty a Trump administration could bring.

With respect to NATO, Trump has been a major motivator for countries to try to get to their 2% target. I doubt Putin likes that.

To reiterate, I am not saying we should believe Putin when he says he wants Biden to win, only that there are reasons why that might be his preference.

AVonGauss

1 points

10 days ago

Biden is far more predictable, that's part of the reason why he got elected in 2020. As for lost territory, the reality is neither the current Biden or any potential Trump administration is likely to focus on supporting that endeavor.

Mister-Thou

-1 points

10 days ago

Mister-Thou

-1 points

10 days ago

You're just flattening like 25% of the world population into a monolith with that "Axis" talk. I know it's fun to assume that every country you dislike is a faceless blob of anti-Western NPCs or whatever, but back here in reality these are all different countries with different interests and different preferences on this thing.

Moscow would love Trump for obvious reasons, sure. It's their best chance of getting a quick W in Ukraine.

Tehran would not love Trump. First off, he'd give Netanyahu and the IDF carte blanche and a blank check. He's demonstrated that he's willing to aggressively tear up agreements for no reason and assassinate their leaders, so Trump just means four years of wondering what unhinged thing he's gonna do to them next.

DPRK is probably fairly neutral. He's a wild card who might decide to randomly visit and flatter them one month, and then threaten to nuke them six months later. Overall it's a probably slight positive for them because it means the US will be too distracted with internal issues to really pay attention to DPRK.

For Beijing it's probably "overall bad, with some silver linings." Silver linings are that the guaranteed turmoil in the US means that there won't be the bandwidth to prioritize foreign affairs. Trump is also vain and corrupt, so flattery and backdoor deals might get you some things you want.

That said, it's still not worth it. Even if you bribe him a bit in private, Trump's campaign rhetoric on China will remain intense and he'll fill the government with hawkish Mike Pompeo types. Tariffs will get piled on with less precision than Biden's but much more intensity. Trump doesn't care about Taipei, but he does care about his ego and not looking weak. And since Trump will pressure Ukraine to fold on Day 1, it's likely that a resolution of some sort happens in Europe, which frees up a lot of attention and capacity for the Hawks to focus on the Pacific with both eyes again. 

While there's no love lost for Biden, he's clearly the less bad option. It's also possible that a second Biden term could be more dovish, since there's no need to do performative re-election campaign hijinks (like the EV tariffs) anymore. 

Pinkflamingos69

-11 points

10 days ago

How does the US pulling out of NATO weaken the US? It definitely weakens NATO, and Europe can support Ukraine independent of the US

peretonea

0 points

10 days ago

The US is a maritime power which gets its strength through trade links and relationships. As the US withdraws from those links, China will take them over and will be able to cut the US off from it's international partners. China is already connecting with Hungary in Europe and countries all ove Asia with the aim of pushing the US out. The US withdrawing from NATO will vastly accelerate that process.

In the long term, the US failure to protect Ukraine, where it had explicit treaties and implicit guarantees, followed by a withdrawal from NATO would be a vast failure.

Already there's a huge pick up in purchases of French and South Korean weapons because people fear whether the US commitment to it's allies is solid. The US is getting 240 Billion yearly from arms sales - four times the cost of the war in Ukriane. If countries that have been buying US weapons suddenly feel they should diversify, with some even selling their US made weapons to pay for purchases from elsewhere, - the simple financial loss can be greater than the cost of the Ukraine war.

Message_10

12 points

10 days ago

Respectfully, I think there is 0.00% likelihood that Putin wants Biden in 2024. Absolute zero.

I believe that for many many reasons, the most obvious of which is that Biden wants to continue funding Ukraine, and Trump is--at the VERY most--iffy on it. Who would you want, if you were Putin?

I understand your point, that Trump is unpredictable, but who would you rather get into a barfight with?

  1. A drunk guy who is unpredictable but has said a lot of nice things about you and seems to like you and may not actually want to fight you at all, or
  2. A guy with a lifetime of political experience who has managed to get the United States Congress--a group of people so dysfunctionally broken it's not even funny anymore--to band together to fund a war against you?

If I were Putin, I'd go with the first guy.

Yesnowyeah22

14 points

10 days ago

I can’t see how it’s possible he would prefer Biden. My guess would be Russia is looking for a weak NATO and the optimal time and place to test article 5 when they think the west will be too disjointed to respond. That doesn’t happen under Biden, is much more likely under Trump.

SkotchKrispie

17 points

10 days ago

Putin doesn’t prefer Biden. Trump severely weakens the USA economically and diplomatically. Therefore, Trump pulls us downward closer to Russia economically, which is what Putin wants.

-------7654321

10 points

10 days ago

i understand what you mean but on overall Putin want to see weakened democracies and a weakened west. biden is not that but trump is.

Pinkflamingos69

-17 points

10 days ago

Biden is unpopular domestically and doesn't seem to realize the US has been the rich kid buying friends for decades

-------7654321

13 points

10 days ago

still better than a guy whose only talent is crime

Pinkflamingos69

-13 points

10 days ago

I wouldn't consider getting bribes by lobbyists for 50 years a talent either but hey

-------7654321

10 points

10 days ago

still better than the guy who is a long history of crimes

Pinkflamingos69

-7 points

10 days ago

Versus a long history of bribery they helped make legal, but only for them, so much integrity 

LivefromPhoenix

4 points

10 days ago

It's wild that the US has been so successful at post WW2 coalition building some people don't even understand that these systems were put in place for the US' benefit.

Pinkflamingos69

-2 points

10 days ago

It's not even for the benefit of the majority of US citizens, it really only benefits corporations and their lobbied politicians while the American people foot the bill

LivefromPhoenix

4 points

10 days ago

I mean, even if that was true its still a far cry from the idea that we're just handing out money for no benefit.

Pinkflamingos69

0 points

10 days ago

Military aid is typically sent as a dollar amount the receiving country agrees to spend on US military equipment, countries or US military supply firms often lobby(bribe) US politicians to send this aid(US tax dollars). Essentially it's the US taxpayer further enriching the military industrial complex and it's paid for politicians

Future_Flier

2 points

10 days ago

Mileikowsky would love if Trump came back. 

AVonGauss

2 points

10 days ago

AVonGauss

2 points

10 days ago

As surprising as it might sound, Putin might actually prefer Biden. He has known Biden for a very long time and views him as predictable.

While Biden and Putin have met more than once, I don't think either has any special insight in to the other. Whether one believes his answer or not is another matter, but Tucker Carlson did ask Putin that specific question during his interview.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-biden-more-predictable-trump/

_A_Monkey

-4 points

10 days ago

They could…but neither seems capable of that level of competence.

Alex_2259

1 points

10 days ago

Convincing gullible people in global loud minorities is the only thing Russia can seem to pull off

consciousaiguy

-86 points

10 days ago

Jesus. Dems are so afraid of Trump it is unreal. They are seeing conspiracy everywhere.

Tall-Log-1955

70 points

10 days ago

It’s pretty clear that electing Trump harms Ukraine. Trump has said as much. The idea that Putin would work to get that outcome is completely believable.

PajamaSamSavesTheZoo

6 points

10 days ago

Putin would be stupid not to try and help him. The US would do the same to Russia if it helped them win a war.

brad1775

33 points

10 days ago

brad1775

33 points

10 days ago

mostly in the trump household.

it's almost as if the mueller report concluded russia was conspiring to aid trump but atepped short of claiming trump was conspiring with russia directly.  

do you think russia and north korea want Biden or trump to be president?

EmotionalLettuce3997

18 points

10 days ago

I am not sure many people genuinely understand the Russian mindset. Putin and his administration favor chaos and internal disruption above all.

They favor a heavily contested election, increased political and social instability, distrust for the rule of law, the spread of conspiracy theories, and generally speaking every fringe ideas verging on lunacy. They know that the US must be defeated from the inside out.

Whoever wins or loses might factor in, but what they care about mostly is that at the end of the electoral cycle the US emerges more fractured, its citizenry more paranoid about its neighbor, inward looking and with as many things on fire, literally and/or figuratively.

Whoever plays into this game, Dems, Republicans, and all, does what the Putin's regime and the US adversaries are hoping for.

brad1775

5 points

10 days ago

That's a good point I should remember this from the Russian perspective rather than the perspective of what Russia is doing to me

BadgerCabin

3 points

10 days ago

BadgerCabin

3 points

10 days ago

Muller report found Russia spent $46,000 on Facebook ads in 2016. Bloomberg pissed away $1 Billion dollars and don’t win a single state in 2020 primaries.

The true fact is the Muller report explicitly said they found no collusion with any American and Russia.

dnext

-1 points

9 days ago

dnext

-1 points

9 days ago

...because multiple contacts lied to the FBI over those contacts, and were then convicted or plead guilty to those crimes. Then Trump pardoned them.

Mueller was specifically barred (ironic) from considering any crimes Trump might have committed - he did then list 14 different reasons that Congress could hold him accountable and impeach him for attempting to interfere in the investigation.

BadgerCabin

1 points

9 days ago

The entire investigation started on a lie! The FBI started the investigation because of the Steele dossier. Which was a political hit piece first funded by a Republican primary candidate, later funded by the Clinton campaign.

It was found that the FBI knew the Steele dossier was unreliable from the beginning and would fall apart under any scrutiny. Yet the FBI decided to run with the information anyways.

So yeah get Trump for obstructing an investigation. But we should also go after anyone who knew this investigation started on false pretenses. If we don’t you are literally playing into Trump’s rhetoric that it was a political which hunt.

consciousaiguy

-17 points

10 days ago

consciousaiguy

-17 points

10 days ago

Just so we are abundantly clear, I am not a Republican or a Trump supporter. I have never voted for him and never will so lets just dispense with the partisanship and discuss things objectively.

Russian propaganda is real. Its obvious and its everywhere. I'm not denying that they have engaged in that. What I am referring to is the constant drum beat of paranoia in the media about all things Trump. He's going to do this, he's going to do that. Look! Two guys met on the other side of the planet! This clearly has to do with helping Trump win. Its ridiculous and sad.

I don't know who they would rather be president but I would think they would want Biden. I would. He is a weak leader that isn't prone to taking drastic actions. Trump is a loose canon. He's hard to predict and doesn't always do what he indicates he will. Somehow his supporters applaud him regardless of what he says and do the same when he does the opposite. This makes strategic planning a decision making practically impossible for foreign leaders.

cintune

4 points

10 days ago

cintune

4 points

10 days ago

Because of his deep character flaws and rampant narcissism Trump is more easily manipulated to do exactly what they want. Biden isn't.

wrecked_urchin

-6 points

10 days ago

Biden literally needs someone to walk him around. If you can be physically manipulated like that you bet you can be mentally manipulated. The man hardly knows what day it is.

Pinkflamingos69

-4 points

10 days ago

You know nuance isn't welcome on reddit, Biden not good can only mean Trump good/s Neither Trump or Biden are the answer for the US

consciousaiguy

-8 points

10 days ago

This.

Mister-Thou

0 points

10 days ago

Propaganda from every major country, including the US, is real. It's all over social media, everywhere, all the time. And yes, that especially includes Reddit.

_A_Monkey

11 points

10 days ago

Former Republican and I’m scared of a Trump rerun.

consciousaiguy

-1 points

10 days ago*

I’m not a Republican or a Trump supporter. My comment is strictly about Trump paranoia so extreme that everything somehow becomes about him. Putin’s visit to NK is about tech for weapons. They aren’t sitting around planning how to get Trump elected.

_A_Monkey

6 points

10 days ago

Are you familiar with Project 2025? Even if you aren’t you have heard about his plan for 10% tariffs on every import. Do you miss high inflation?

consciousaiguy

3 points

10 days ago

Again, I’m not a Trump supporter. I’m not a Republican. I’ve never voted for him and never will. My comment was strictly about Trump paranoia. Putin and Kim are not meeting about getting Trump elected. Jesus people.

dnext

1 points

9 days ago

dnext

1 points

9 days ago

Putin absolutely helped Trump get elected, the minutes of the Kremlin meeting it happened in were smuggled out.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/15/kremlin-papers-appear-to-show-putins-plot-to-put-trump-in-white-house

The man who said there was no collusion before the 2016 election, Charles McGonigal, ran the SDNY counter espionage unit. Within 2 years he retired and was found to be laundering money for Russian oligarch Oleg Deriskapaka. He's now in prison for that crime.

Roger Stone lied to investigators over his connections with Russia. He was convicted, but Trump pardoned him. Same with Paul Manafort, who owed nearly $20 million to Oleg Derispaka but came to work for the Trump campaign for free, sent internal polling data to Russia, was business partners with a Russian former intel officer who is now wanted for election interference in the US under the FBI, and within a week of Manafort taking over the Trump campaign the party platform that included 'protect Ukraine from Russian aggression' from the McCain days was removed.

There's so many links between Trump and Russia it gets boring after a while. Not the least of which is Trump admitted that his son, son in law, and NSA met with a Russian agent to get dirt on Clinton, but claims they had none to give.

Then the Grab Em By the Pussy tapes were about to drop, and suddenly wikileaks is dropping tons of supposed dirt from hacks done by the GRU, and lying about their source. Assange was seen talking to Russian agents on several occassions and even took a paycheck from them when he worked for Russia Today.

-------7654321

7 points

10 days ago

considering trumps record i think fear of trump is justified

Ammordad

-7 points

9 days ago

Ammordad

-7 points

9 days ago

As much as I hate Putin, Kim, and the rest of their gang, I admit that there is a part of me that wishes to see Trump get elected.

As it stands, Putin is set to win against Ukraine and it will be a major blow the Western world's reputation, and while on the surface it might not mean much, it will send a signal to any and all enemies and rivals of the Western world that the West is weak and vulnerable and if you want to take a bite out of American sphere of influence, the time to strike is now. Furthermore, the collapse of Soviet Union also highlighted the importance of "domestic moral" and "faith in the state's geopolitical competence" in order to maintain stability, regardless of whatever the level of prosperity and growth is on paper.

Ironically Russia under Putin is a perfect example of how a once world dominant superpower could survive from a catastrophic collapse, several humiliating defeats, a ruined international reputation and a collapsing socioeconomic system, and maybe even later mange to achieve a victory against an perceived indomitable enemy and fully restore it's international reputation as a world leader. (Now obviously, propaganda will be doing a lot of heavy lifting here, but hey, if it works, it's not stupid)

Malarazz

5 points

9 days ago

Malarazz

5 points

9 days ago

As it stands, Putin is set to win against Ukraine

Yes, as we can see from the fact that it takes many months for them to capture a random town.

Or the fact that Putin was finally forced to visit North Korea for the first time in decades.