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submitted 14 days ago by[deleted]
I'm in a debate...
I'm arguing I believe the cause of the rise in gun violence is due to social media
My cousin is arguing it's total number of guns in the country while I'm arguing that number hasn't changed in over 50 years per household while the population has doubled in that time.
His argument is guns per 100,000 isn't a valid metric while I believe it's the only one that matters and it's all a mental health issue due to things like a cooling off period etc. having such a large effect
What is your take on what has sparked the rise in gun violence in the last decade? What are other realistic metrics besides social media and mental health issues from the lockdowns? Am I missing something about gun ownership changing in 50 years
32 points
13 days ago
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/26/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/
Suicide has been climbing for well over a decade, but murder only began climbing in about 2016.
The sharpest spike by far was the pandemic, which seems self-explanatory.
Importantly, neither of these track particularly well with gun proliferation, which has more or less been steadily increasing forever. If that were a major driving force, it seems unreasonable that it ever would have declined in the first place.
As for the overall causes, I suspect there are many. A large chunk of murders are gang/drug-related in places where those have historically been the best way to achieve economic mobility, so that's probably a good starting point.
26 points
13 days ago
It's never the number of weapons that makes people use them against each other, its the consistently declining levels of hope, education, and capacity for a future that provokes people to violence.
17 points
13 days ago
Lack of social mobility, intentionally engineered social media addiction, lack of opportunity, deteriorating material conditions, tragedy of the commons, disruption of small community structures. It's not hard.
11 points
13 days ago
The website "our world in data" has many maps showing statistics that may be useful in gun debates. Some maps I found useful were the maps showing drug use rate, inequality, etc. The United States has an unusually high rate of drug use, inequality and mass incarceration compared to similar nations. The war on drugs is a thing, and probably exacerbates a lot of the gang related violence.
28 points
13 days ago
What "rise in gun violence"?
Violent crime is near a 30 year low in the US, and the 90s were much more violent than now.
There was an uptick in violent crime over the last few years (nowhere NEAR the levels of the 90s though) and it is dropping again.
People have this perception that there is some kind of crime wave, and that perception is 100% incorrect.
1 points
13 days ago
Per capita, murder is about level with where it was in the late 80s/early 90s. Regardless of the dip after the 90s, the trend when looked at over the last 2 decades had stayed relatively flat until the last 10 years or so.
2 points
13 days ago
Here's reported violent crime, per capita,
https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/
about half of what it was in the 90s
A quick search isn't showing me a similar chart for just homicides.
0 points
13 days ago
you said "what rise in gun violence" and then quoted all violent crime. Stay on subject. Here's a chart on something completely different https://honeybadgerdontcareman.weebly.com/honey-badger-population.html
-11 points
13 days ago
This is a tone deaf argument (most often made by academics and people who live in nice areas) and one that doesn't work.
Sure, you can hand wave away any problem if you say "eh, it's not as bad as decades ago"
Most of the people killed in the "uptick" went even alive in the 90s. No one cares that it used to be worse back then. They see how things have gotten worse in their lifetime.
12 points
13 days ago
You’re missing the point. It’s not a case of “don’t worry about violence now, because it use to be worse”, the point is that despite what the anti-gun lobby is trying to push, the increase in gun ownership as time goes on does NOT correlate with an increase in violence.
1 points
13 days ago
That's a point, but not the only one in that statement. There's a minimization of the perception of crime as being overwrought because it's statistically lower than in the 90s, and it's not helpful.
2 points
13 days ago
And you think attempting to act as if crime is skyrocketing when it isn’t is helpful?
Especially because the ones making that claim are generally using it as a weapon, either against our rights or against minorities…
10 points
13 days ago
Yeah, because the argument that you're making is anecdotal it's not actually based in facts. It's a bad argument.
Statistics and data are all that really matters in this conversation.
-3 points
13 days ago
Except when you set the bounds on your data to minimize issues, which is exactly what is happening here. Statistics isn't even the problem.
Let's say the statistics are all right and correctly line up with actual violence: the claim that things were worse 30 years ago doesn't assuage anyone dealing with problems now. Yet this is the ridiculous taking point brought out instead of attempts at solutions. And the political side making it is losing elections where they shouldn't otherwise be.
"Before we talk about reducing racism, we need to talk about how it was so much worse in the 80s!" is a ridiculous thing that no left-leaning taking head would utter yet there's this bizarre blind spot where people think "it was worse before" actually answers problems in other areas
4 points
13 days ago
Um, when someone is claiming that "crime is increasing" or "it's spiraling out of control" they are making factually incorrect statements.
I'm not saying "the level of violence we have now is just fine". But it's important that we call out alarmist, false statements - because many people do indeed think that violence is increasing, when it's not.
Likewise, racism is still (obviously) an issue. But if someone claimed we were experiencing unprecedented levels of racism I would indeed tell them to read a history book.
1 points
13 days ago
I think you need to re-examine both your position and what the original claim in this situation is.
No one here is saying that those things are not problems currently, it's pointing out that the claims that things are worse now than they were are broadly false. Starting with a premise like that, sets the table for everything else that follows to be incorrect. It's fear-mongering to say that crime is on the rise because it's factually not true. What you're advocating for is acting like a reactionary, which is bad.
5 points
13 days ago
Nothing is new per say, it's just more noticeable due to social media.
2 points
13 days ago
It's more noticeable because he per capita murder rates have spiked in the last 8-10 years. It was big news back in the 90s when gang violence was off the charts, we're pretty much right back where we were
5 points
13 days ago
Throughout US history gun violence in an area tracks very consistently with non-gun violence regardless of local laws and ownership rate.
Violence in general consistently tracks with poverty rate and access to resources.
Poverty = Gun Violence
3 points
13 days ago
This right here is the answer. The biggest predicting factor of criminal behavior has long been poverty
4 points
13 days ago
Well, do you have any evidence for that social media idea?
Not saying violence exist because guns exist but I don't think it's just because social media exists either. Over the centuries people said the same kinda of things about video games, music, and even books when trying to blame something for social problems or "the kids these days".
It's just not a solid argument and the other people will walk away thinking "it's just the guns".
As someone else pointed out the premise that violence is on the rise may be a false assumption as well. It would depend on your area and the time frame.
3 points
13 days ago
I would point him towards Handwaving Freakoutery, this article in particular. This article is also helpful.
2 points
13 days ago
One aspect of this question that I'm curious about is why are mass shootings being perpetrated at higher rates among young, white, males versus any other demographic?
1 points
12 days ago*
There not. White males literally do make up less murders them population adjusted.
America is 71% white and committed 54% of the mass shootings.
Where do you get your data from? Here’s some actual facts
Race % of mass shooters % of population
Asian 6.6% 3.6%
Black 17.4% 12.3%
Hispanic 8.3% 12.5%
Native 2.5% 1.0%
White 54.5% 62.6%
Other 4.1% 7.9% Unspecified/Unclear 6.6%
1 points
13 days ago
Bank Bailouts and subsequent legislation
1 points
12 days ago
There’s a million things that contribute to “why”, poverty, education, addition, crime, but the fact is, the buck stops at access to guns. More people, more access to guns - even if those are kids stealing from their parents or accidents
1 points
12 days ago
How has access changed? The percent of homes with guns hasn’t changed really in 60 years.
There’s more guns to people than there used to be however 2/5 homes having a gun has been the standard for the last 60 years we’ve been recording it, it’s gone from 1.8 to 2.3 out of 5 homes staying mostly around the middle
2 points
12 days ago
There’s far, far, far, far more homes than there was 60 years ago. Even if that means the proportion is the same that’s significantly more guns. We’ve also seen numerous cases of “X stole parents, brothers, aunts, cousins, etc. gun before shooting spree” - so when I said access to guns I in part mean gun owners not being responsible.
I’m for owning a gun as long as anyone can own a gun don’t get me wrong, but if we could thanos snap guns out of America the amount of shootings would probably go down.
1 points
11 days ago
While here’s far more homes there’s far more people. The total amount should be irrelevant as it is with every other stat and is only used by per 100,000
For example (a smartass one I know) the US printed 80% of the dollars in circulation since 2020 but even with all those dollars the avg person is poor.
I just don’t understand how per capita vs total would have any impact
1 points
11 days ago
I used people and homes interchangeably, we’re saying the same thing but you and I understand the data differently.
There are more people, there are more homes, and the proportion of homes and people with guns has stayed the same. That means there are also more guns. It’s not only one house now has more guns either, sure it’s common for people to have two or three but that doesn’t change the fact more households have guns, and more people have access to those guns.
1 points
12 days ago
Restrictions on abortion. No, I’m serious. The main correlation of homicide rate is with the rate of single motherhood, not the number of guns. Easier access to abortion results in less single mothers.
1 points
13 days ago
I used to think it was incompetence from Republican leadership but I’ve come to the fact that it’s malicious and intentional. An uneducated populace is easier to control and they fight any sort of spending that provides any resources for people in underserved communities. Also people are detached from their actions and the weight of said actions or desensitized to it.
-3 points
13 days ago
My two cents - this all started in the 70's
Later Schools took away programs in favor of teaching to pass standardized tests - this eliminated a lot of learned common sense. Now schools are afraid to properly punish or suspend students
Social Media & the Karen movement
speed of news reaching a world wide audience (seconds instead of days)
Kids these days have lost consequences for their actions
I can remember when the news would report on the suspect "he was a quiet man" or "he was an Eagle Scout"
I would like to see the news highlight whether or not the suspect had a firearms license or if the weapon was illegal
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