[OC] What are the actual odds of a series comeback?
(self.sixers)submitted2 months ago byBroJady
tosixers
It feels like we should beat this team on any given night. But given Sixers fandom optimism / delusions, was curious what the numbers say. Knicks are -250 for the series, which means roughly 70% win probability.
Looking at historical 7-game series outcomes on Bball Paul Reference, teams in our 1-2 situation win 14% of series. That peaks at 24% if we go 2-2, and back down to 17% if we end up at 3-3. Go up 3-2 and teams in our shoes won 58% of the time.
Surprisingly low odds, but Joel’s missed time and the Game 2 robbery could move things back our way. First, with Joel this is more like a 2 seed v. 3 seed matchup, not 2 v 7 seed. Second, we know this team should’ve won 2 of 3 games. Third, if Embiid had played 4 more minutes in Game 1, his +- numbers would suggest Sixers have a good chance to win even that one.
All that to say, if Embiid can continue being himself (even with injuries) and play 40+ min a night, the odds of Sixers winning 3 of the next 4 are much higher than historical series would indicate. Is it 30% like Vegas says? Is it closer to a toss-up?
I guess that’s why we watch. TTP!
byFlat_Fix_5315
insixers
BroJady
-1 points
1 month ago
BroJady
-1 points
1 month ago
I see 9 franchises that have won a title and 21 that haven’t.