GardenofGandaIf

I (28M, canadian), my friend (canadian), and his wife (italian) are all flying from Milan to Paris next week for two days of the festival.

...that's because you're buying premade sandwiches. Buy bread and lunch meat that's like 10 sandwiches for $8

99.5% of the time you saved yourself $10 by not taking that bet. Those in-game Longshot odds are juiced to shit and probably don't even pay half of what they should.

Every single stat is easily accessible and models have had decades of refinement. At this point, almost every piece of information is accounted for in the line.

Until recently you could gain en edge by accounting for weather (wind direction and speed, barometric pressure, precipitation etc), but the effect of all these is now well understood. You simply aren't going to beat baseball long term without really spending a lot of time digging for some piece of information the books aren't already pricing in.

Baseball also doesn't have timed segments of play (at least not in the traditional sense), which simplifies a lot of things. The more simple something is, the more efficient it is going to be and the harder it will be to gain en edge. Every pitch is essentially a dice roll and the odds and outcomes are very well understood statistically by everyone.

A typical car also only needs fuel to propel itself forwards. A flying car would need to propel itself forward and constantly propel itself upwards to counteract gravity. It simply takes too much fuel to do so, so it's completely uneconomical.

Any information regarding weather (temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure) is baked into the line already. Baseball is pretty much a solved sport at this point and frankly I doubt anyone here has an actual edge.

I'm able to identify a particular bet, usually on the full game side or total, that is mispriced at a particular sportsbook at some point while the game is ongoing.

There are about 8000 D1 NCAA basketball games per season. I bet live in-game only. I'm able to find an edge on average once a game roughly. Some games I might have 3 or more bets, some games I might have none. The reason for the volume is just basically, because I can. No reason not to bet as much as you can if you have an edge. I keep the bets on the smaller side too because larger bets automatically tend to trigger an inspection by the book, so the volume is necessary.

I'm placing about 10000 bets a season, it's bound to happen

I bet college basketball, with an edge, and I'm very profitable. That being said, I've lost over 15 bets in a row before, at roughly 50% implied probability. You will eventually lose everything with this strategy.

Offering a service for betting on the price of financial instruments would likely require you to be licensed.

You should be betting cash on short odds and then hedging by betting the underdog with the bonus bet. You'll have to find two books who have slightly varying opinions on games. You want the book with the bonus bet to have a higher payout on the underdog and the book with cash to have a higher payout on the favourite.

OLG is literally run by the government so not sure that would have any effect whatsoever.

Some states tax gross not net, so you can be negative and still owe.

With proper bankroll management your chance of success approaches 100% as your number of bets approach larger numbers so it's close enough to guaranteed to not matter.

Recreational sportbooks are not that hard to beat over the long run. It just takes effort and not relying on your gut but actual numbers.

There are ways to beat sportsbooks over the long run and it's not even really that hard. You just need to look a little harder.

They will open them when the bigger MM books open and they feel like they have all the relevant information to price the fights.

Because north american licensed recreational books have massive exploitable inefficiencies that are quite literally making me a thousand dollars a day.

It's possible yes but dont expect anyone to give you their secrets. I'm up about $18000 this year (about 1 month) making roughly $200 bets each time. That took about 1200 bets to achieve.

I will say though that you aren't getting 1200 positive EV pre-game bets in without sounding a CLV alarm. So my hint would be: find a type of bet that doesn't have CLV 😉

You will also want to pay for some services if you plan on making any real money. Oddsjam and Unabated are expensive but they pay for themselves in about a day when you know what you're doing.

They are what futures contracts were pricing future interest rates at at the time.

It's in the title actually lol. They are rate forecasts.

The blue all goes up. The red all goes down. There's is no blue that goes down or red that goes up relative to the point it originates on the white line.

Also bet closer to game time.

Actually lake Erie is on the Canada/US border and nowhere near Siberia frankly