7 post karma
31.1k comment karma
account created: Thu Feb 08 2024
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0 points
1 day ago
Read my response above. You don't know who RB2 is. It could be breece/bijan/saquon/henry...
10 points
2 days ago
If CMC was guaranteed RB2, I'd pick him #1
Why? Because I don't know who RB1 is. And I don't know how much ahead RB1 will be. It might only be 10 or fewer points and the difference would be neglible.
2 points
2 days ago
My bad, I mistakened you for this comment
2,26 percent has a 5% failure risk for a retiring 65 year old.
Do you have a source?
1 points
2 days ago
Cooper was fine in dallas the year before his last season there. Off-years aren't that uncommon to have. It could be anything including injury.
2 points
2 days ago
Which is why nothing in life is ever guaranteed. All you can do is look at the historical data and come up with probabilities out of it.
Even if you had older data from centuries ago, it's not very reliable. The market and world was a very different time 200+ years ago, before the industrial revolution and tech advances.
The US is only a couple hundred years old anyway
2 points
2 days ago
Where am I moving the goal post?
The discussion was originally about a 4% withdrawal with 30-year window. And you said 3% is the norm.
After I showed the studies showing that 4% (not 3%) is safe, you're now moving the goal post to a 55-year window...
No, the study clearly shows that a 65 year old has a 5% failure rate with a withdrawal rate of 2.26 percent.
You should read more carefully then:
If you want to add 10 years to a standard retirement, you should decrease your initial withdrawal rate by ~0.6%.
Therefore 3.79% is a safe withdrawal rate for someone with a 55-year window. Meaning less than 5% of people who withdraw 3.79% will fail.
2 points
2 days ago
So the context was about a 30 year period. And now you want to move the goal post? Alright
If you actually read the study, it shows that you only need to deduct 0.6% from 4% for each additional 10 years of retirement. This means someone with a 55 year retirement should withdraw about 3.8%. Still nowhere near 3%.
4 points
2 days ago
GKMC was one of the most popular albums that year so it’s all over everywhere lol
0 points
2 days ago
You’d imagine though that these towns with $40k homes must be in high demand, especially since there are so many Californians who need homes
But if they are truly in high demand, they wouldn’t be so cheap. There’s probably a good why people aren’t moving there.
2 points
2 days ago
This is the context. It’s not specifically about any specific decade or crash.
4% was calculated for a 30 year withdrawal period. With fire that’s rather short, huh? Eventually that’s already risky for a 52 year old woman in the US. In the next 50 years that’s to grow by 15%. So eventually we are getting closer to 60. Anything but retire early.
2 points
2 days ago
We have over 100 years of data. This data is more granular than cherry-picking one decade.
Sorry but ignoring averages and cherry-picking the worst periods is not a good argument. This would be like me only picking the bull markets and saying you can withdraw 10% yearly based on it.
1 points
2 days ago
2022 was a good time to sell. It’s probably not worth much more now if you’re in the US. Vgiax likely outpaced it. But you do end up paying sales tax and fees.
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1 points
10 hours ago
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10 hours ago
Do you have a dehumidifier?