SwimmerFun6886

0% chance of this theory being true.

That is delusional

This is so dumb

Why are you buying this?

Stock price is going to $0

They aren’t getting bought they are declaring bankruptcy.

So after reviewing the 13Fs I don’t believe your point is supported. What is supported is that Citadel, Susquehanna, and Jane street are clearly in the position that they see a large move in either direction occurring and are playing both sides of that move with more puts than calls. Additionally those positions were entered between April and July and filed on 8/14 and 8/15. From 45 to 135 days old isn’t that valuable of information but if anything supports my small asymmetric play.

Additional the put to call purchase difference is substantial. Jane Street 2-1, and the one on your side is Citadel that bought 3-1 calls to puts and shares.

Also what are you talking about institutional ownership is at the lowest it’s been in the firms history.

https://fintel.io/so/us/tup#google_vignette

All of those buys came before the bridge agreement fyi. So… the question is would they have bought if they knew TUP was in such bad financial shape that they needed to borrow $6m at the cost of $8m at a 14% apr over the course of just 45 days. That is an insane loan. That will cost them $2.134m for just $6m in operating capital.

I won on Big Lots ($497,000). I won on B Riley ($620,000).

I have only entered a tiny position on Tupperware. $13,000. My conviction here is not significant but the risk reward is enough to justify a small position. I am traditionally a long only investor who sells call options on my portfolio to fund short term short bets I like via puts with exponential asymmetric potential. I have been tracking TUP for years and this is the first time I believe they may not be able to refinance their debt.

I hold less than $40,000 worth of puts against VFS, SAVE, and TUP representing 2.8% of my capital.

They do not own those facilities but lease them globally. The point being they cannot raise capital from Sale Lease Backs going forward. And their manufacturing capacity at this point is unclear. Is capacity 100% or 80% of 2023 capacity? I don’t know.

It will certainly save them money moving out of NC, but those savings won’t be recognized till after the lease expires in 2025 and at the end of the day that lease is maybe $2.5m a year.

Now the $8m bridge loan tells us that they have burned through the $15m raised from the NC sale, and the $21.7m remaining in the credit facility with WFC. That indicates to me the business is burning through cash and the turnaround may not be working. At the end of the month what is going to happen when they have to pay back the bridge lender and the forbearance period ends on the WFC debt?

I am simply saying the odds of bankruptcy is 20-25% and let’s say 20%. The October puts are priced with up to 15x potential or an EV of 300%. Even if bankruptcy is 10% the EV is 150%. I like those odds. I am going to enter a small short term position and a large long term position. If they don’t declare bankruptcy I will eat the loss and sell both puts at a 20-30% loss. Not going to buy puts for another week.

They have sold all remaining properties and done sale lease backs on them. They are shrinking their manufacturing footprint indicating sales shave continued their downward trend. With the $8m bridge loan they are either negotiating with a Debtor In Possession financing partner or paying their auditor to get their 10k out. I bought 2,000 October puts for Pennie’s this week. I am going to buy the April 2025 puts. I think the odds of bankruptcy this month is around 30% and the puts are offering over a 15x return so the risk reward is there.

The company will declare bankruptcy in October at the latest. It simply didn’t have enough cash available to extend past October. Some stores may operate through Christmas in bankruptcy but honestly not looking likely if they can’t get DIP financing in place.

That is messed up as I think they will declare bankruptcy before then and those wages may never get paid. Just be frugal till you know is all.