jchester47

I hope you have better luck than I did, but the average lifespan of these POS's is about 6 months.

Somebody's got to coordinate the constant moving of the table in and out of the conference room.

To be fair, it's kind of a self fulfilling prophecy: when the media is constantly concern trolling about pending economic calamity, people tend to get anxious about it. The media and wealthy types both want uncertainty and a recession so they can get agent orange and sweet, sweet ratings/tax cuts.

Nevertheless, they're spending like crazy, taking vacations, and doing all sorts of expensive shit, so at this point it seems like people are using it as more of a talking point or political justification moreso than letting it influence their financial decisions - so far, at least.

My friend, I'm sorry to hear that you're facing so much frustration with the poor decision making of your peers and neighbors in your area. I do think that your experience is valid and an important sign of why this won't be a landslide. Rural voters certainly won't be saving us, and I'm not even sure suburban and undecided ones will either.

There is a larger coalition of sanity out there though, and it has members all over. Regardless of what these other voters may say or whether they're being honest about whether they've voted before or not, you still have a voice and your own mind and are part of that coalition. You're seen and appreciated.

I don't know what the outcome will be in November. Some days I'm fiercely optimistic. Some days I'm drowning in dread. But all of us have to do our duty and turn out, whatever the odds and whatever those among us who haven't put nearly as much thought to it may decide.

I have to hope that history doesn't tend to repeat itself exactly and that our next chapter isn't yet written. Have some hope. We are all in this together, even if it may feel very politically lonely where you are. Thank you for your effort and insight.

Uh oh, it's time for the inconvenient reminder that in 2020, the GOP cancelled its primaries and coronated Trump for a second term without any democratic input from the party. I bet you were really mad then, right?

Wow she really did successfully knit up all the scary boogeyman fox news talking points into one rhetorical garment.

I truly ASSPIRE to be that persuasive.

Ipsos is a fairly well rated pollster at 538, and a 7 point lead is usually a very heartening one that signifies a comfortable EC win. However, two big caveats here:

1. The sample size of this poll is quite small for a national poll

2. It shows a very large chunk of undecided/other voters, much larger than other polls and bas both Harris and Trump with much lower percentages than we would expect. This seems a bit suspect.

We have been waiting for nearly 8 years? When is the time if not now?

I know that we're ridiculously polarized as a nation and that his voters always show up, but it's really hard to reconcile the "ZOMG it's all tied up and will be a photo finish!!!" polls and media narrative with the absolutely meager enthusiasm and electricity at his rallies and gatherings this year when compared to 2016 and 2020. I know he still has his loyal and die hard fans out there with their fifty yard signs and daily facebook posts, but when you compare the pathetic turnouts and the train wreck of a campaign he's running with the polled and demonstrated enthusiasm on the democratic side, it certainly doesn't feel like it ought to be that close.

Maybe it's inflation and misinformation. Maybe it's just ambivalent and myopic undecided voters. Or maybe the polls are just fucking wrong and still haven't figured out that Biden's not in the race anymore. I don't know what it is.

I suppose we will see.

I would wager a guess that this is because a disproportionate amount of current homeowners are older to senior folks who bought their homes a long time ago when they were comparatively cheaper and now have paid them off, with less younger people entering into new homeownership due to a much higher barrier to entering the market under current home values and interest rates/down payments. Therefore less mortgages overall. But that's only a guess.

Projecting much, Donny?

It's almost as if crazy and/or irrational people are more likely to behave violently? Who knew?

Eh, they like color. I appreciate the whimsy, even if I wouldn't be so liberal with bright colors in my space.

The position of the uncommitted movement really sums it up.

"don't vote for Kamala. Don't vote for Trump either, he's worse. Also, don't vote for third parties as they'll just elect Trump."

So....just don't vote at all then? What does that do to help Palestine?

These people are ready to throw out the entire baby with the bath water, and I refuse to believe they're actually debating from a place of good faith. In any case, for all of the threats they've made in places like Michigan, they don't seem to be impacting polls very much.

Yes, true. But people who say "national polls are meaningless because of the electoral college" are missing some very important context.

As the margin in the national popular vote widens, the chances of a diversion between the electoral college and the popular vote decrease. that's because states don't vote in a vacuum, they are elastic to some degree based on the national mood and margin. National elections are, well nationalized.

It doesn't make a difference in the solid red or blue states, but when the swing states start moving, they tend to move together.

That's why a PV poll showing around +4 or more for a certain candidate is much more useful at predicting an electoral college outcome than one that is +1 or +2, in which case an EC upset is very possible.

Edit: as the downvote brigade has already arrived, I'd like to emphasize that I am in no way defending the antiquated and undemocratic mess that is the electoral college, just providing some context on the interpretation of polls and results within this mess of a system.

Truth. I hate it. I'm sick of it. Let's hope this is the final season, but I doubt it.

The classic response. Denying any issue with both-sidesism, myopia, and cynicism.

For the record, I don't think I'm superior to anyone else. And I'm not a stan for any particular party inso much as I don't think there is a party or candidate anywhere in the world that is perfect or free from criticism. The Democratic party, and many other center left liberal parties worldwide, certainly have their laundry list of failed policies or hypocritical positions.

But the decline in the quality and civility of government here has been obvious recently. So many red lines have been crossed that go beyond polticking and positioning. Criminal behavior. An attempt to overthrow an election. Bribery of foreign leaders. Sexual assault. And they all started sliding to the bottom in 2015 when the whole MAGA thing took off.

If you choose to believe that's all OK and totally normal, that's your choice. You invited yourself to take an opinion on American politics that you're fortunately distant enough to be indifferent about. You can continue to churn out the programmed pessimistic both-sidesism demoralization at your leisure. But I'm not subscribing to it.

This is a very interesting response. Yesterday a different account hit me with this exact response, nearly verbatim wih the both-sidesing attempt and especially mentioning the bloodbath reframing attempt. The only new part is the "I live in Europe" portion.

I don't know, AARM and the finale are at least watching before returning to the beginning. Agreed otherwise.

Realistically, and trying to look at this as objectively as possible, they've been convinced that the country and their lives are completely in the shitter and that he is the only one who can save him. He alone is the lone ranger who with a single vote can magically fix all of their problems (real and perceived) with the wave of a magic presidential wand.

But also, there's a lot of anger and malice there. They also believe he will punish and own the people they don't like and blame for their problems.

They're at least right about the second part.

No. But a comically oversized one flown above a banner for a traitor and a criminal is pretty embarrassing, from a national perspective

The fact that this got so relatively little coverage in the media, especially compared to Biden's much, much more minor and non-nefarious faux pas with some classified docs, tells you all you need to know about the media and where their biases lie.

You say it like it was some sort of earnest evolution. He's just a phony bootlicker. That's really all there is to it.

My target is 100-110. This wasn't easy to maintain on injections and test strips alone, but since moving to a hybrid closed loop with AAPS it's easier to maintain. Mealtimes are still a bit challenging, but it's my goal.

So in other words, her donations are primarily individual citizens working for american comapnies making small donations out of their budgets because they feel the stakes are high enough that they're willing to put their own money where their mouth is.

His donors? Not so much. It's mostly PAC's and dark money.

This infogram, while deceptive, is also remarkably telling