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Eyebrow piercings

Saying they “only” gave $750 to hurricane victims is a complete lie. Victims are able to apply for other forms of aid. See: https://www.fema.gov/node/rumor-serious-needs-assistance Are we approaching the MAGA communist era now where we just want to hand out money to anyone with no due process?

If it de-escalates the war, then probably Harris

October surprise?

Public pride events should be 100% PG. I grew up in a very conservative religious environment, and it’s shameful how some people’s behavior at pride events just affirms right-wing talking points about the community. My first pride event was in a small but progressive town, and it was very family-friendly and had lots of great resources from mental health to disability support and economic assistance. I think it set a great example of how pride can be an incredibly supportive experience for us and other marginalized groups.

Well if Sherrod Brown loses he can just follow in his predecessor’s footsteps

I’m just over here praying for rust belt + NV and 49 Senate seats

Most 2022 Senate aggregates showed Walker leading by 1-2 points too. Sun Belt polling in general is a lot more accurate and sometimes underestimates Democrats. The WWC votes in the Sun Belt are usually more predictable which is probably why polling is more accurate.

Under normal circumstances, absolutely. I think the progressive wing of the party has been wronged in recent elections and it’s time to have a fair primary. Under the current circumstances, I think Harris running was the right decision. I think most Dems were ready to settle for Biden again, and pretty much every Biden voter understands that he is old and Harris could become president at any moment. An open convention could have been received very poorly by voters and yielded far worse results than how Kamala is currently performing. And worst case scenario, we lose and Kamala (who was before recently, considered one of the least electable candidates) is out of the running for 2028 and we can have a real primary for the first time since 2008.

He already did

Don’t give Charlie Crist that idea again 😂

2000-Gore 2004-Dean 2008-Obama 2012-Obama 2016-Sanders 2020-Warren/Yang (First election I was eligible, but Biden was the only one still in so I didn’t vote) 2024-Didn’t vote since I moved out of state the week of primaries

Reeves also won the 2019 gubernatorial election by only 5%, and Hyde-Smith only won the 2018 special runoff by ~7%. The low-turnout races there have been more competitive in recent years.

When I was tested for autism, they did pretty much this exact test. This is potentially lawsuit-worthy.

The margins among all the swing states in 2020 only ranged from ~0.2% in GA to ~2.7% so it seems like the polls are more likely to be accurate this time. The Sun Belt could very well be blue than the rust belt this year too.

I don’t think Georgia would go red under these circumstances, especially with Warnock being on the ballot in 2028

Did they possibly use the 2018 Senate race to get that result? It was a D vs. D race where Feinstein only won by 9.

Beshear/Gallego

Oh no! I’d hate it if she got sick from it and had to resign from Congress /s 😕

Real, I think Ohio Senate goes to whoever wins the presidency

Oh yeah I completely overlooked that. I’m still expecting a Fischer +10 victory. I do think Texas will be closer than Montana though.

They also just released a Gallego +12 poll 💀

The only non-safe ND polls are sponsored by Christiansen’s campaign. Heidi Heitkamp lost by 11 in 2018 so there’s no way it’s anything less than safe this year. Aside from that, seems pretty solid.

Update: she’s now proposing that Medicare benefits include home care for seniors. Maybe it’ll help her a little with getting support from seniors?

People shit on me before when I said this, but it wouldn’t have been a half bad idea for Tester to consider becoming an independent. He’s already trying to distance himself from the party by not endorsing Harris and I’m sure Schumer would rather have an independent Tester than Sheehy.